Plummeting approval of Merz coincides with a record-breaking surge in support for the AfD party.
In a striking turn of events, a recent poll conducted by the Forsa Institute on behalf of RTL Germany indicates that support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition government is at an all-time low[1][3][4]. According to the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, only 29% of respondents expressed satisfaction with Merz's work, marking a significant drop from previous polls[3][4].
The poll, which was conducted from August 5th to 11th, also reveals that the black-red coalition, formed just 100 days ago, has no cause for celebration[1][5]. The combined support for the CDU/CSU and SPD has dropped to 37%, overtaken by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party at 26%[1][3][4].
The data suggests that Merz is currently facing a significant drop in approval and public confidence. Dissatisfaction stands at around 67%, with particularly low approval in eastern Germany (20%) compared to western Germany (31%)[3][4].
The poll also indicates declining support for Merz's CDU/CSU coalition partners, with their combined backing falling to 24%[1][3][4]. Meanwhile, the SPD remains at 13%, tied with the Greens[1][5]. The share of non-voters and undecided has risen to 25%, well above the share of non-voters in the last federal election (17.9%)[1][5].
Interestingly, the poll also reveals differing views among supporters of different parties regarding the continuation of the coalition. 74% of AfD supporters expect an early breakup of the coalition, whereas 67% of Green supporters believe the coalition will last until the end of the legislative period[1][5]. Similarly, 81% of CDU/CSU supporters believe the coalition will last until the end of the legislative period, compared to 64% of SPD supporters[1][5].
The poll also found that trust in the continuation of the current government coalition is lower than trust in the previous coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP in September 2024[1][5]. The Left is at 11%, down one point, while the FDP is at 3%, the BSW at 4%, and other minor parties are at 6%[1][5].
Overall, the poll results paint a picture of a government facing significant challenges, with declining support and a divided public opinion on the future of the coalition.
[1] RTL/ntv Trendbarometer: https://www.rtl.de/trendbarometer [2] Forsa Institute: https://www.forsa.de/ [3] Chancellor Friedrich Merz: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/chancellor/merz-friedrich/3043728 [4] CDU/CSU: https://www.cdu.de/ [5] SPD: https://www.spd.de/ [6] AfD: https://www.afd.de/ [7] FDP: https://www.fdp.de/ [8] BSW: https://www.bsw.de/ [9] The Left: https://die-linke.de/ [10] The Greens: https://www.gruene.de/ [11] Last federal election: https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/wahlen/deutschland-wahl-2021/ergebnisse/
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