Let's Talk Politics: Life after the Vote
Pierre Poilievre's political future gauged, as Canada's conservative leadership election concludes; scrutiny given to the electoral process for potential flaws and controversies.
So, the electoral dust has settled and confusion reigns supreme - Pierre Poilievre loses his riding, the snail-paced release of official results, and more questions than answers swirl around. Let's dive into post-vote explanations.
Why can't we ditch Pierre Poilievre already?
At the municipal, provincial, and federal levels, it's fairly common for a losing leader to ask an elected party member to hand over their seat. But here's the catch - they've gotta resign, and a by-election must follow. Enter the "prerogative of the Crown and, practically, of Mark Carney," as Stephanie Chouinard, a political science professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, puts it.
When can we expect this to go down?
Prime Minister Trudeau remained tight-lipped on the matter, simply stating "we'll see." The Electoral Act mandates a maximum six-month delay from the day the seat becomes vacant. Carney could choose to hold off on a by-election, effectively keeping Poilievre out of Parliament debates for a while.
Can we recount this mess?
Tied candidates or a gap less than one thousandth of the total votes cast warrants a recount. Candidates or voters must file a request within four days of the results' validation by Elections Canada.
NDP's Potential Downfall
With Jagmeet Singh's resignation, the NDP risks a lengthy leadership vacuum. Numerous obstacles lie ahead - negotiations between the Liberals and Washington, limited time for leadership race organization, and potential Liberal raid on NDP ranks. Their fate after the defeat? History isn't exactly on their side. The Progressive Conservatives went from 169 seats to... 2 seats after a poor performance in the 1993 election. That's a tough road to recovery, especially considering a loss of official party status, funding cuts, and fewer debates.
Who will the Liberals buddy up with?
The Bloc Québécois and NDP hold the balance of power, but the Liberals' choice depends on the bills. Facing an alliance with the Bloc as political poison in the rest of Canada, the Liberals may seek to attract NDP MPs into their ranks instead.
Delays in Results and Voting
In some ridings like Terrebonne, results took an eternity to emerge. Disputes and incorrectly filled-out ballots added complications to the process. Yet, experts stress Elections Canada's competence and the lack of indications of error or fraud. The technological hiccups on the Elections Canada website have earned criticism.
A So-So Turnout
All in all, a turnout of 68.7% was recorded, rising above the 2015 and 2019 elections but falling short of the 2021 vote.
Enrichment Data:
- Recount Conditions: A recount must happen if the leading candidates are tied or if the gap is less than one thousandth of the total votes cast. The request must be presented within four days of validating the results.
- NDP's Fate: The NDP may face challenges after their defeat, including loss of funding and official party status, fewer questions in the House, and absence from parliamentary committee debates due to fewer members.
- Advance Vote: Preliminary data shows that advance voting increased by 25% compared to the 2021 general election. The counting of advance vote ballots normally begins one hour before the polls close on election day, but Elections Canada issued new instructions for this election, permitting counting two hours before the polls close.
- Turnout versus Previous Elections: The turnout of 68.7% for this election surpasses the 2015 (68.3%) and 2019 (67%) elections but is lower than the 2021 (62.6%) vote.
- While waiting for an official decision from Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre remains out of Parliament debates due to the prerogative of the Crown and the delayed by-election.
- The NDP faces challenges following Jagmeet Singh's resignation, such as a lengthy leadership vacuum, negotiations with the Liberals and Washington, and limited time for leadership race organization.
- The Bloc Québécois and NDP hold the balance of power in politics, but the Liberals' choice between the two depends on the bills they face.
- In some ridings, results took a long time to emerge, and disputes or incorrectly filled-out ballots caused complications, but Elections Canada's competence and lack of indications of error or fraud were emphasized by experts.
- All advance vote ballots were counted two hours before the polls closed on election day, marking a change in the counting procedure compared to previous elections.
- The turnout for this election was 68.7%, surpassing the 2015 and 2019 elections but falling short of the 2021 vote.
- A recount will only be initiated if the leading candidates are tied or the gap is less than one thousandth of the total votes cast, and the request must be submitted within four days of validating the results.
