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Take another look at Israel's military operations against Iran

Friday marked the start of Israel's targeted military actions against Iran, with the declared aim of quashing the atomic menace looming over the Islamic Republic. But what other motives are driving the Israeli government? Has Iran's autocratic regime weakened? What part does President Donald Trump play in this potentially volatile situation, and could this conflict spark more chaos in the Middle East?

Let's delve into the core of the issue with some expert insights.

Dr. Guido Steinberg, a political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), believes that Israel has solid reasons for its recent airstrikes on Iran. Steinberg asserts that if Israel manages to hamper Iran's nuclear program for several years, it would be a success of their military operation. While initial accolades for the Israeli attacks came from Trump, it remains unclear whether he might seek to broker a new "deal" with Iran at Israel's expense.

German-Iranian journalist Isabel Schayani views the Iranian regime as currently in a weakened state. She hopes for an end to the dictatorship in the Islamic Republic; however, there are widespread fears of an intensification of the conflict. Schayani sees the Israeli airstrikes as a diversionary tactic by Netanyahu away from the warfront in Gaza, where humanitarian conditions remain catastrophic.

Frederik Pleitgen, a journalist and CNN correspondent, suggests that there haven't been significant damages to Iran's nuclear facilities yet. Rather, the targeted assassination of military personnel and scientists represents an attack on Iran's knowledge base. Regarding the U.S., Pleitgen maintains that the U.S. military is indirectly involved despite Trump's best efforts to avoid offensive operations. If Iran were to hit U.S. bases in the region, Pleitgen fears that the situation could spiral further out of control.

ARD correspondent Sophie von der Tann has been reporting from Tel Aviv since the Israeli attacks began. She observes the Israeli people's responses and analyzes the Israeli government's strategy. Israel's primary目的 remains undoubtedly its aim to curb Iran's nuclear program, but the operation also serves to distract from the war in Gaza and bolster Israel's image as a tough protector against the Iranian threat and its proxies.

Beyond the stated objective, Israel's military operations against Iran stem from several strategic motivations:

Neutralizing Iranian Proxies: Israel intends to weaken Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, whose past conflicts with Israel demand closer scrutiny. The recent reduction in risk of massive retaliation from Hezbollah following the October 7 attacks indicates a weakened force[3].
Exploiting Weak Iranian Air Defenses: The operation was timed to take advantage of the severe weakening of Iran's air defense capabilities, yet to be fully restored after previous attacks[2]. This presented Israel with an opportune moment to launch strikes without encountering robust air defenses.
Intelligence Penetration: Israel boasts impressive intelligence penetration of both Hezbollah and Iran, allowing them to target Iran's nuclear program and leadership effectively[3].

The Iranian regime has been negatively impacted by these operations:

Nuclear Program Setbacks: The strikes likely set back Iran's nuclear program, although significant portions will remain intact[3].
International Pressure and Isolation: The escalation could increase international scrutiny on Iran, further isolating the regime.
Internal Political Dynamics: Netanyahu's call for the Iranian people to rise up for their freedom could potentially aggravate internal tensions within Iran, though its immediate ramifications are uncertain[1].

Though no longer in office, President Donald Trump exerts influence in this scenario. A prior timeline associated with these tensions involves a 60-day deadline set by Trump for Iran to negotiate a deal, which has since expired[2]. The current U.S. administration has proceeded cautiously when supporting Israel's strikes, fearing potential destabilization in the Middle East[3].

On the brink of further instability, the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate in several ways:

Retaliation and Escalation: Iran could react through direct strikes, proxy attacks, or terrorism, possibly leading to a broader conflict[3].
Regional Dynamics: The conflict could worsen existing tensions between Iran and other regional players, particularly if Iran's allies or proxies engage[4].
Global Intervention: The international community might struggle to intervene effectively due to the complex geopolitical landscape and divergent interests among major powers[2].

The military operations by Israel against Iran are not just about quashing the atomic menace; they also aim to neutralize Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. The Israeli government's strategy also serves to exploit the weakened state of Iran's air defenses and boost Israel's image as a tough protector against the Iranian threat.

The escalating war-and-conflicts between Israel and Iran could lead to further volatility in the Middle East, with potential retaliation and escalation from Iran, deteriorating regional politics, and possibly global intervention due to the complex geopolitical landscape. This general-news situation requires careful observation and analysis, with President Donald Trump playing a crucial role despite no longer being in office.