Forest Fires Persistently Threaten Brandenburg - Relief Possible from Friday
Forest fires in Brandenburg, Germany, continue to be a significant concern due to the ongoing drought. The risk of forest fires is expected to escalate further in certain areas on Thursday, with the German Weather Service (DWD) predicting the highest danger level in Potsdam and Ostprignitz-Ruppin.
Currently, only the district of Elbe-Elster is at the highest caution level 5, indicating a significantly high risk. However, the state's forest fire safety chief, Raimund Engel, cautions that an all-clear declaration isn't imminent, depending on the quantity and pattern of rainfall.
The dry conditions are exacerbating the forest fire risk, making improvements uneven across all areas. Insufficient rainfall is anticipated to concentrate in certain areas, leading to the persistence of the highest caution level in some districts.
Forest Fire Susceptibility Study
Research on forest fire susceptibility in Brandenburg has shown that extremely dry conditions, like those in 2022, lead to a higher mean forest fire susceptibility (FFS) compared to the baseline scenario of 2016[1]. The study suggests that future drought events will continue to increase the risk of forest fires, but projected increases in precipitation patterns may slightly reduce the mean FFS in the future[1].
Uncertainty in future precipitation predictions arises from changes in annual precipitation sums estimated by the DWD, ranging from −4% to +13%, affecting the flammability of Brandenburg's forests and future FFS[1].
Effective Forest Fire Management
Addressing the expected increase in drought events and other anthropogenic factors contributing to forest fire susceptibility is crucial for effective forest fire management strategies[1].
