Persistent Setbacks: Grim Implications if Trump Regains Presidency

A second term for Trump: A threat to progress, a slap in the face to Enlightenment values, and a shake-up for global politics

Flashback to 35 years ago, when the world experienced an unprecedented transformation with the fall of European communism. Francis Fukuyama famously heralded this as the "end of history," prophesying that all societies would eventually converge toward liberal democracy and market economies. Well, it seems we were wrong, and perhaps we should call the current era the "end of progress" with Donald Trump's return and his MAGA movement.

We often take progress for granted, but it's worth remembering that living standards only witnessed substantial improvements with the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution. Enlightenment thinkers acknowledged that scientific experimentation could help humanity understand the world and create groundbreaking technologies, and social sciences could foster better collaboration to improve living conditions for everyone. Progress required a commitment to the rule of law, respect for truth, and the exaltation of expertise. The MAGA revolution, however, revels in the rejection of these values.

Don't be fooled by a slew of impressive technological feats in space and AI during Trump's tenure. Can we truly trust America's new nobility to oversee sustained, equitable growth when their sole motivation is the accumulation of wealth, without hesitation or scruples? They've already demonstrated an uncanny knack for manipulating markets, media, and technology platforms to advance their private interests through manipulation and disinformation.

What distinguishes today's American-style corruption from previous eras is its sheer scale and audacity. Gone are the days of secretly stuffing cash into brown envelopes; American oligarchs now openly contribute hundred-million-dollar contributions to political campaigns in exchange for favors. A mere $465 million no-strings-attached loan to Tesla from the Obama administration 15 years ago pales in comparison to what's to come.

Progress relies heavily on investments in basic science and a well-educated labor force. Yet during his first term, Trump sought drastic funding cuts for research, even leaving his fellow Republicans dwelling in disbelief. Will they be as vocal in opposing him this time around?

Our institutions of knowledge are constantly under attack by the MAGA movement, eager to demolish the perceived "elite" institutions where cutting-edge research takes place. The United States can't thrive if significant segments of the population suffer from deficiencies in education, health, and nutritious food. Around 16% of American children grow up in poverty, performance in international educational assessments is mediocre, and malnutrition, homelessness, and low life expectancy are pervasive issues. The only antidote is an increase in public spending on education, health, and nutrition. Yet the oligarchs in power have vowed to make cuts wherever they can, potentially leading the U.S. even further down a path of devolution.

It's hard to picture ongoing advancements in science and technology under Trump. I envision three possible scenarios. In the first, America finally confronts its deep-rooted problems, renounces the MAGA movement, and reaffirms its commitment to Enlightenment values. In the second, America and China travel the path of oligarchic capitalism and authoritarian state capitalism, respectively, while the rest of the world falls behind. In the last scenario, Europe steps up as the champion of progressive capitalism and social democracy.

Unfortunately, the second scenario seems most likely, paving the way for us to consider the extent to which America's growing deficiencies will remain manageable. China boasts significant advantages in technology and AI thanks to a massive market, an abundant supply of engineers, and long-term planning and comprehensive surveillance. Additionally, China's diplomacy has been far more effective than America's with regards to England, Africa, and Latin America. Regrettably, neither America nor China is devoted to values that have been the pillars of progress since the Enlightenment.

As humanity grapples with existential threats such as climate change and pandemics, unregulated AI now becomes a concern. While some might argue that a pause in progress is imminent, it's essential to remember that every dictatorship comes to an end, ultimately signifying the triumph of history. But for now, history is inching closer and closer to a standstill.

The MAGA revolution challenges the values of science and environmental-science, as it revels in the rejection of truth and expertise.
Climate-change and pandemics pose existential threats to humanity, and unregulated AI's concern grows under a government that dismisses the importance of policy-and-legislations and facts.
As the world's economies shift, war-and-conflicts and accidents, like car-accidents and fires, may escalate, due to the growing arrogance and powers of oligarchs in politics, crime-and-justice.
Current political migrations are causing turbulence, as people seek shelter in societies that uphold Enlightenment values and general-news, in opposition to the disregard for public welfare manifested by the MAGA movement.
Economically, the future seems bleak as policy-and-legislation cuts threaten investments in basic science and education, impeding progress in science, technology, and overall societal developments.
Leadership in the race towards technological and scientific advancements might soon lean towards either China, with its significant advantages, or Europe, maintaining the values that have brought progress since the Enlightenment era.