Persistence of AK Party's Influence and Predicted Path Forward
In the political landscape of Turkey, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been a force to reckon with for over two decades. Founded in 2001, the party's success is unprecedented, having been in power uninterruptedly since then.
The AK Party's rise to power can be attributed to a combination of factors. Unlike traditional parties that alienated pious and nationalist voters with strict secularism, the AK Party positioned itself beyond orthodox left-right divisions, attracting conservative segments previously ostracized by mainstream parties while also appealing to diverse views.
One of the key factors in the AK Party's success is its distinct ideological vision. Over time, the party developed a unique doctrine centered on a "Century of Türkiye" vision, aiming to transform Turkey into a global power and example in democracy, diplomacy, and economy. This overarching “cause” or “dava” fosters deep loyalty among its supporters, transcending day-to-day politics.
Another significant factor is the AK Party's effective municipal governance. The party's initial successes, especially under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as mayor of Istanbul in 1994, established a new model of local governance credited for revitalizing cities neglected by prior administrations. This "1994 spirit" remains a cornerstone of the party’s credibility and electoral appeal at the local level.
The AK Party has also navigated complex regional issues, such as managing the Kurdish issue and regional diplomacy, aiming to stabilize Turkey internally and enhance its regional leadership. The party's promotion of Turkey’s defense industry and military technology resonates strongly with its base, strengthening perceptions of national strength and autonomy.
Despite setbacks like losses in the 2024 local elections partly due to economic concerns, the party has recovered by attracting mayors from other parties and maintaining broad support. The AK Party has also found a new ally in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
The AK Party's women members played a significant role in door-to-door recruitment of voters. The party opened its doors to people of different views, attracting more conservative segments of society. However, the AK Party remains ahead of its closest rival, the CHP, but the gap is narrower than in the past.
The AK Party sought to be a voice for the unheard, rather than relying on easy targets like conservative Muslims. The party has weathered many crises but faced a potential first loss in the 2024 municipal elections. Unprecedented losses in AK Party strongholds were interpreted as a lesson by the electorate, possibly unsatisfied with the state of the economy and the performance of mayors.
The AK Party's success can also be attributed to the failure of well-established parties to maintain voter loyalty. The party skillfully combined small-town politics with the embrace of an undecided electorate. Despite the challenges, the AK Party continues to shape the political discourse in Turkey, with its vision of making Turkey a global power or a global example in various fields, known as the "Red Apple."
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkeys-akp-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-justice-and-development-party/ [2] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/03/turkey-erdogan-akp-municipal-elections-2024-local-government.html [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/turkey-erdogan-faces-challenge-to-dominance-as-opposition-gains-momentum [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-defence-industry-gains-ground-amid-erdogans-rule-2021-03-30/
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