Peace at the Expense of War: Sacrificing Conflict for Tranquility

In a tense turn of events, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) following Israeli strikes on its Fordow and Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Facilities in June 2025. This potential move could have severe and multifaceted consequences, as outlined below.

If Iran were to officially withdraw from the NPT, it would gain legal freedom to develop nuclear weapons, a development that could accelerate its nuclear weapons program and increase the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region. This worrying scenario could be further compounded by Iran ending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), resulting in the loss of inspection access and transparency about its nuclear activities. This would increase global uncertainty and mistrust regarding Iran's nuclear intentions.

The move could also escalate direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, with ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities and reciprocal Iranian missile and drone attacks. Proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and other regional actors may intensify, worsening regional instability.

Furthermore, Iran's withdrawal and suspension of cooperation with international bodies would further diminish diplomatic efforts and negotiations, reducing prospects for peaceful resolution or containment of the conflict. The withdrawal would likely shatter existing deterrence mechanisms in the region, turning a proxy shadow war into a direct and unpredictable confrontation between states.

Neighboring countries might feel compelled to enhance their own military capabilities, potentially pursuing nuclear options or increasing conventional arms, thereby increasing the risk of a broader arms race in West Asia. The involvement of proxies and regional rivalries could escalate into widespread violence and destabilization across multiple countries, threatening the fragile security environment of the entire Middle East.

The potential Iranian withdrawal from the NPT also poses a significant challenge to the credibility and viability of the NPT as a cornerstone of global nonproliferation efforts. A key signatory abandoning the treaty undermines confidence in the treaty’s enforcement and its ability to deter nuclear proliferation. It would weaken the authority of international monitoring bodies such as the IAEA and damage the broader postwar global order that relies on multilateral agreements to manage nuclear risks.

The precedent of withdrawal amid escalating conflict may encourage other states to question their commitments or follow suit, thereby destabilizing the global arms-control architecture. The IAEA's Top-Priority Capabilities 2024-25 roadmap includes artificial-intelligence change detection in satellite imagery and blockchain-secured seals to restore confidence without intrusive presence. However, these measures may not be enough to bridge the gap in information left by Iran's suspension of the Additional Protocol and the unplugging of 38 IAEA cameras.

In conclusion, Iran’s potential withdrawal from the NPT would mark a dangerous escalation with profound regional and global implications. It risks accelerating nuclear proliferation, sharpening military confrontations in West Asia, destabilizing the regional balance, and undermining the entire international nonproliferation regime and multilateral security frameworks. The consequences of an Iranian withdrawal for West Asian stability are unclear, but the potential repercussions are grave and demand urgent attention from the international community.

A potential Iranian withdrawal from the NPT could lead to a resumption of their nuclear weapons program, escalating the risk of nuclear proliferation not only in the Middle East but also worldwide.
The breakdown of diplomatic efforts and international cooperation with Iran could pave the way for increased proxy conflicts, particularly involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and other regional actors, further destabilizing the entire Middle East.
As neighboring countries may feel compelled to enhance their own military capabilities, there could be a domino effect, leading to an arms race in West Asia and potentially wider geopolitical consequences, challenging the global arms-control architecture.