Parliamentary Elections with Proportional Representation: Reasons for the RN's Victory
Who stands to gain if French deputies were elected by proportional representation? Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou champion this idea, and it's a long-standing fight for the Prime Minister and leader of MoDem. Proportional representation would give parties seats in proportion to the votes they receive.
The National Rally could see significant benefits in a fully proportional system. In the current French Assembly, they hold 139 seats including allies. With full proportional representation, the RN block and allies would take 192 seats, while the Republicans, central bloc, and New Popular Front would win 62, 116, and 162 seats, respectively. In this scenario, the far right would be the clear winner.
An alternative scenario is partial proportionality, where only the nine most populated departments switch to this voting method.
Check out the video above for a deeper dive into this topic.
The Impacts of Proportional Representation
Implementing proportional representation for French National Assembly elections would significantly reshape the political landscape in several key ways.
Fragmentation and Coalition Politics
The current two-round majority system favors larger parties by awarding a "national bonus" to the leading coalition. Under proportional representation, smaller parties like the far-left and Reconquête would gain seats proportional to their vote shares, potentially leading to a multi-polar Assembly and the need for coalition governments.
Far-Right Consolidation
The National Rally has historically underperformed in legislative elections but would amplify its influence under proportional representation, especially after its 2024 EU election success. Depending on the election results, the RN could become the largest parliamentary group, challenging Macron's ability to govern without their support.
Policy Implications
- Legislative gridlock could slow lawmaking, especially on contentious issues like immigration or EU reforms, given the RN’s Euroscepticism.
- Radical proposals such as "national preference" employment policies and AFP privatization might gain traction in a PR system where the RN's seat share matches their vote share.
- Centrist parties, like Macron’s Renaissance party, would lose their artificial seat bonus, reducing their legislative leverage.
Political Stability Risks
Proportional representation could replicate the instability of the Fourth Republic in the 1950s, but recent elections already show tripartite fragmentation (left/Macronists/RN).
Regional vs. National Dynamics
Proportional representation might amplify regionalist voices, though the current electoral geography remains dominated by national-level cleavages like immigration and EU integration.
Comparison: Current vs. Proportional Systems
| Aspect | Current Two-Round System | Proportional Representation ||-------------|-------------------------------|----------------------------------|| Seat-Vote Discrepancy | High (e.g., 2024 RN: 33.4% votes → 25% seats) | Minimal (votes ≈ seats) || Coalition Necessity | Rare (presidential majority bonus) | Constant (no automatic majority) || Far-Right Influence | Limited by second-round alliances | Directly proportional to vote share || Policy Continuity | High (executive dominance) | Lower (negotiation-driven) |
Partial PR might mitigate these extremes but would still weaken the "republican front" against the RN in runoffs, potentially normalizing far-right participation in governing coalitions.
For more insights, check out the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Ipsos Talan projections to study the effects of proportional representation on legislative elections.
- If French political elections were to adopt proportional representation, parties like the far-right National Rally could significantly increase their representation, potentially becoming the largest parliamentary group and challenging the ability of Emmanuel Macron to govern without their support.
- Under a proportional representation system, smaller parties such as the far-left and Reconquête would gain seats proportional to their vote shares, leading to a multi-polar Assembly and the need for coalition governments.
- Policy implications of proportional representation could include legislative gridlock, slowing lawmaking on contentious issues like immigration or EU reforms, and the possible implementation of radical proposals like "national preference" employment policies and AFP privatization.
- The partial proportionality of electing representatives only from the nine most populated departments could still weaken the "republican front" against the National Rally in runoffs, potentially normalizing far-right participation in governing coalitions.
