Pakistan's water release will not be tolerated by India.
In the ongoing feud between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan, things are heating up rapidly. Following a recent skirmish between troops in the disputed Kashmir region, India has threatened Pakistan with cutting off water supply, triggering a potential crisis.
On Friday, India's water minister C.R. Paatil hinted at ending the Indus Water Treaty, a six-decade-old agreement that regulates the utilization of the Indus River system. This treaty is crucial for both countries, particularly Pakistan, as the Indus originates in Tibet, flows through the Indian-controlled Kashmir, and then runs through Pakistan before reaching the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan has deemed India's water deprivation as an act of war, and the tension surrounding the cancellation of the treaty has resulted in escalating threats and sanctions such as diplomat expulsions and trade suspensions from both sides.
The hostility between the two nations escalated further after the killing of 26 tourists, including some Pakistanis, in the Kashmir Valley last Tuesday. A local Islamic extremist group claimed responsibility for the attack. Both India and Pakistan have been exchanging blame, with India accusing Pakistan of harboring terrorists and Pakistan denying these allegations.
Recent developments come as a reminder of the "extremely high" risk of escalation mentioned by renowned South Asia expert Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The risk of conflict expanding into a larger-scale confrontation between the two nations remains a significant concern. It is likely that we might see a military escalation in the coming weeks.
The mountainous region of Kashmir, predominantly inhabited by Muslims, has been divided between India and Pakistan since the partition of British India in 1947. The two countries have fought two wars over control of Kashmir and expert opinions indicate that this latest dispute could signify a new level of escalation. Though both countries are yet to take any direct military action, the potential threat is imminent.
[1]https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pakistan-diplomatic-row-escalates-over-water-dispute-2021-05-22/[2]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57025296[3]https://www.sciencesetpeople.net/en/actualites/indien-paquistan-fait-son-maximum-et-suspend-le-traite-sur-l-eau-de-l-indus-128559[4]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/21/pakistan-protests-over-indian-claims-of-terrorist-attacks-by-pakistan[5]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/world/asia/india-pakistan-water-treaty.html
- The ongoing dispute between India and Pakistan over the Indus Water Treaty, initially sparked by the skirmish in Kashmir, could exacerbate war-and-conflicts in the region, especially considering the high risk of escalation mentioned by Michael Kugelman, a renowned South Asia expert.
- The potential cancellation of the Indus Water Treaty, a crucial agreement for both nations, is not only a matter of politics, but also a source of general-news, crime-and-justice, and war-and-conflicts, as diplomatic measures, trade suspensions, and the possibility of military escalation are all on the table.
