Pakistan's agriculture and regional stability at risk as Chenab River inflows plummet
Pakistan alleges India has obstructed Chenab River water flow, potentially threatening early Kharif crop season.
Tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise, with the latter expressing deep concern over a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows. India's unusual move to significantly reduce the usual volume of water it passes to Pakistan is likely to result in water shortages for the early Kharif season, threatening Pakistan's agriculture and regional stability.
Following the terror attack in Pahalgam, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, sparking fears of military escalation. In reaction, Pakistan claimed any stoppage of water would be considered an act of war. Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, spokesman for Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA), stated that the reduced inflows could force Islamabad to slash water supplies to farms by a fifth if the flow remains curtailed.
India's decision to halt water-sharing under the Indus Waters Treaty follows the April 22 Pahalgam attack and marks a sharp escalation in bilateral tensions. Pakistan may seek international arbitration or leverage diplomatic channels, but India's punitive measures create a zero-sum dynamic.
The sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows could cripple irrigation for wheat, rice, and cotton crops during critical growth phases, risking food shortages and export declines. Pakistan, which is dependent on the Indus system for over 90% of its crops, generates ~23% of its GDP and 37% of its employment from agriculture, while consuming 94% of water withdrawals.
Moreover, reduced flows strain Pakistan's hydropower plants, which generate 20% of its electricity. This could exacerbate power shortages and economic losses, while public unrest risks could surge as water scarcity combines with economic distress, particularly in agriculturally dependent regions like Punjab and Sindh.
India's actions threaten the Indus Waters Treaty—a rare functional agreement between the nuclear-armed rivals—which is now in jeopardy, removing a key confidence-building mechanism. Pakistan's accusations of Indian "water aggression" could embolden anti-India militant groups, while India frames its actions as counterterrorism.
This crisis risks becoming a hydrological flashpoint, merging resource competition with longstanding geopolitical hostilities. For a deeper understanding of the impacts and tensions, read here.
- Indus Waters Treaty
- Pahalgam
- Jammu And Kashmir
- Pahalgam Attack
- Chenab
Sources: Bloomberg, ANI, Council on Foreign Relations
- The Indus Waters Treaty, a key agreement between India and Pakistan, is currently at risk due to India's decision to halt water-sharing, following the Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir.
- The decreased inflows in the Chenab River, a critical water source for Pakistan, threaten India's compliance with the Indus Waters Treaty and could potentially force Islamabad to retaliate, typical of war-and-conflicts between the two nations.
- The stoppage of water under the Indus Waters Treaty could significantly impact Pakistan's agriculture, with crops like wheat, rice, and cotton bearing the brunt of the water shortage, potentially leading to food shortages and export declines.
- The political consequences of this water crisis extend beyond agricultural impacts, as public unrest could surge in agriculturally dependent regions like Punjab and Sindh due to water scarcity and economic distress.
- In the realm of general news and crime-and-justice, this hydrological crisis potentially exacerbates geopolitical hostilities between India and Pakistan, making it a potential flashpoint for further conflict and resource competition.
