ÖVP suffered significant losses predominantly to FPÖ in elections.
Hitting the Blue Wall: The Shocking ÖVP-FPÖ Swap in Vienna's Municipal Elections
Vienna's recent municipal elections saw a major shake-up, with the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) making massive gains at the expense of the long-reigning Austrian People's Party (ÖVP). According to the Foresight Institute for APA and ORF's voter flow analysis, the ÖVP lost a substantial number of its 2020 voters, most of whom flocked to the FPÖ.
Adiós, ÖVP - Hola, FPÖ
The numbers don't lie: a mere 37% of ÖVP voters from the previous municipal election in 2020 chose the turquoise and black again, while a whopping 27% switched to the FPO. The Social Democrats (SPO) garnered 16%, and NEOS managed 12%. The ÖVP didn't fare too well with the remaining 4%; many of their voters decided to sit this election out.
The story repeats for the FPÖ side; 29% of their 2020 voters used to back the blues and the ÖVP. A similar number, 26%, switched to the SPO this time around.
The ÖVP-FPÖ Shift in Absolute Numbers
Looking at the bigger picture, out of the 148,000 ÖVP voters in 2020, 55,000 voted for the ÖVP in these elections, while 40,000 backed the FPÖ. The SPO welcomed 24,000 new votes, and NEOS gained 18,000.
The SPO retained the support of 71% (216,000) of its 2020 voters, with only a small loss to the FPÖ (36,000). The majority of SPO voters remained loyal, and there were hardly any losses to other parties.
The Reds' Disappointing Election Campaign
Despite the KPO's attempt to win over red voters by campaigning with the slogan "Ludwig will win anyway," the Communists' bid fell flat. The KPO mainly gained its voters from people who voted for them in 2020 (29%), but also secured a notable number from the Greens (29%), and to a lesser extent from the SPO (11%), others (11%), and non-voters (8%).
The Strache Effect
Similar to the SPO, the HC Strache team suffered significant losses to the FPÖ, with 54% of its 2020 voters casting their votes for the blues this time. Only 18% of HC voters also supported the new list of the former FPO vice-chancellor, and 18% decided not to vote at all.
This unsettling trend of ÖVP voters switching allegiances to the FPÖ can be understood within the broader political context in Austria. The FPÖ's rise to power at both the national and municipal levels, capitalizing on nationalist, anti-immigration, and populist sentiments, offers a glimpse into the disillusionment many ÖVP voters feel with the traditional center-right policies. Moreover, Austria's historical and societal dynamics have established the FPÖ as a party with strong appeal to voters sympathetic to their far-right positions, tracing their appeal back to post-war political attitudes and nationalist leanings.
Profit for the FPÖ was evident in Vienna's municipal elections, as they gained a substantial number of voters from the traditional center-right ÖVP, a shift that may signal a policy-and-legislation shift within the city's governance due to Austrian politics tending towards nationalist, anti-immigration, and populist sentiments.
In light of the ÖVP-FPÖ swap, one may anticipate potential changes in general news reports regarding Vienna's policy and legislation, as the FPÖ's growing influence could lead to different strategies and policies.
