USA-TRUMP/TARIFFS-CHINA-METALS (CORRECTED, UPDATE 2, FACTBOX): A Snapshot of China's Mineral Export Controls after Trump-Xi Trade War Truce
Shedding Light on China's Export Controls
Overview of China's Export Regulations on Minerals Following the Trade War Truce
China revealed its intention to remove recent non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S., following the trade war truce with Washington. This potential development might pave the way for the relaxation or removal of China's export restrictions on rare earths.
Rare Earths in the Spotlight
Seven rare earth elements and related materials were added to China's export control list last month, joining over a dozen minerals and related materials already under China's control. Although the truce may speed up approvals, these restrictions weren't explicitly aimed at the U.S. and China has stated its commitment to maintaining a tight grip on strategic minerals as a matter of national security.
Beyond Rare Earths
Historically, China imposed export controls on tungsten, indium, bismuth, tellurium, and molybdenum in early February, right after U.S. President Trump's first 10% tariff on Chinese goods took effect. Licenses are now required for exporting these metals and related products, but bans weren't enforced in all cases.
In January 2023, China proposed to restrict the export of technology related to cutting-edge battery components and the processing of critical minerals like lithium and gallium. The proposed changes are ongoing, and there's no specific timeline as to when they will come into force.
Last December, China banned exports of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the U.S., with the ban only applying to the U.S., but China had already introduced export licensing regimes for these metals before that. Significant delays were experienced in resuming exports to major buyers like Japan, India, and South Korea, even after export licenses were introduced.
China's dominance in the supply chain for these metals is substantial, with the country mining or refining between half and 90% of global supply for most of these minerals.
A Look Back: 2010 and Beyond
While specific historical data for other minerals is limited, an earlier episode of mineral export restrictions by China has shown potential risks of supply chain weaponization. More recent developments include a mutual reduction in trade measures in 2025, with China easing some restrictions on critical minerals as part of the deal.
Enrichment Data
- Rare Earth Elements (REEs): China controls nearly 90% of global REE processing, creating a strategic chokehold on manufacturing and military technologies.
- Tungsten: There are no specific reports of export restrictions on tungsten by China.
- Indium, Bismuth, Tellurium, Molybdenum: There are no detailed reports on export restrictions for these minerals.
- Battery Technology: China's influence in battery technology is significant due to its control of critical minerals, but specific export restrictions aren't mentioned.
- Lithium: There are no specific export restrictions on lithium by China.
- Gallium and Germanium: China has implemented restrictions on gallium and germanium processing technologies as part of broader export control measures.
- Antimony: Export restrictions on antimony aren’t clearly stated.
- Graphite: There are no published reports on export restrictions on graphite by China. (To learn more about China's influence on critical minerals, references [1, 2, 3, 4] provide valuable insights.)
- In a twist, India might benefit from China's relaxation or removal of export restrictions on rare earths, as these elements are crucial for various technology applications, including smartphones and military defense technology.
- The world of sports, particularly cricket, could face challenges if China tightens its grip on graphite, a key component in making cricket bats.
- Despite the ongoing trade war truce, political tensions still linger in sports diplomacy, as USA-China relations heavily influence international sports events and sponsorships.
- As China moves towards stricter environmental regulations, the overall impact on technology advancements, such as renewable energy, remains to be seen, especially with China being a significant producer of critical minerals like lithium and gallium.
