Overthrow the Obligation

Let's dive right into the ongoing debate about reinstating conscription in Germany, shall we? The latest chatter surrounding this topic is heating up, even from within the coalition ranks, who think the current volunteering-based military service system isn't enough. But what's the real deal?

The populace, as per the latest poll by Forsa, seems to be split — 59% are favoring the return of conscription, while 37% are against it. However, it's important to note that this support is predominantly among the elderly, who won't be the ones serving. In fact, among the young adults (18-29-year-olds), only 29% are in favor, whereas 61% stand against it. This data corresponds to another Forsa poll from March, where it was revealed that only 17% of the population would be willing to defend Germany with a weapon in the event of a military attack. Seems like forcing others to do something you wouldn't do might not be the most popular move.

Many believe that a larger army is necessary in the current geopolitical climate. However, let's take a step back and consider history. The Bundeswehr's size is largely due to the German reunification and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. In 1992, Federal Defense Minister Volker Rühe (CDU) rightly pointed out that post-reunification, Germany was "surrounded by friends," and there was no longer a need for a large army for national and alliance defense.

Fast-forward to today, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the situation has definitely changed. Yet, the suspension of conscription remains a significant civilizational achievement. Abolishing it entirely would have been even better but alas, progress takes time.

It's also worth mentioning that the Self-Determination Act passed by the traffic light coalition last November contains an exception clause for the case of tension or defense. While this law generally allows people to change their gender entry freely, trans women are legally required to remain men during the determination of the tension or defense case. This intentional contradiction within the law feels oddly hypocritical, doesn't it?

From June 21 to 22, the German Peace Society—United War Resisters will be organizing a "conscientious objection congress" in Kassel. Sure, some might considered pacifist organizations like the DFG-VK outdated. But hey, maybe it's about time to reconsider the relevance of such organizations in our modern world.

As for the현재 Bundeswehr, around 182,500 people serve, including 112,800 conscripts, 57,700 professional soldiers, and approximately 12,000 voluntary conscripts. The proportion of women stands at just under 14%. The CDU/CSU and black-red governments' initial plan was to increase the troop strength to 203,000 soldiers by 2031, with the potential mobilization of up to 260,000 reservists. However, these target figures are now considered outdated.

Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) recently stated that a long-term force of 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers would be needed in the standing armed forces. Veteran’s Association president Patrick Sensburg thinks otherwise—he suggests that between 300,000 and 350,000 soldiers would be needed to defend Germany's territory using modern military equipment. So, it looks like there's still some debate about the media narrative surrounding the need for a "mass army" and becoming "the strongest army in Europe."

Now, let's talk money. On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Munich ifo Institute published a study in June 2024. It examines the macroeconomic costs of reintroducing conscription. The study states that if 25% of an age cohort were drafted, affecting 195,000 people, it would cause state expenditures of about 3.2 billion euros and macroeconomic costs of 17.1 billion euros per year. The return to compulsory service would be more expensive than increasing the attractiveness of the Bundeswehr, such as offering higher salaries to voluntary military service personnel.

In conclusion, while the debate over conscription continues, it's essential to consider the financial implications, fairness towards everyone involved, and the ongoing nature of this discourse within the German political landscape. A "market solution," such as offering competitive salaries to attract volunteers, might be a more cost-effective and just alternative. But hey, that's just our two cents. What do you think? Never afraid to speak my mind, that's for sure.

The ongoing debate about reinstating conscription in Germany involves discussions within policy-and-legislation and politics, as it pertains to the general-news, with the latest poll by Forsa showing a divided public opinion. While 59% of Germans support the return of conscription, only 29% of young adults (18-29-year-olds) are in favor, indicating a generational divide. Moreover, the financial implications of reintroducing conscription have been examined in a study by the Munich ifo Institute, which suggests that the return to compulsory service would be more expensive than increasing the attractiveness of the Bundeswehr by offering higher salaries to voluntary military service personnel. As the debate progresses, it is crucial to consider various aspects, including cost-effectiveness, fairness, and the ongoing nature of this discourse in the German political landscape.