Overseeing Trump's actions at a distance, Israel concerns arise about potential exclusion from a freshly crafted Middle East they significantly contributed to shaping.
Trump's Second Term: A New Dance in the Middle East
As Trump touched down in one regal fortress after another, welcoming Arab leaders and championing a new Middle East this week, many in Israel found themselves feeling left out in the cold.
For decades, Israel has cashed in on its special bond with the United States, acting as a gatekeeper to Washington. From the Camp David Treaty with Egypt to the Abraham Accords negotiated during Trump's first term, Arab states eager for U.S. favor usually first had to curry favor with Israel. And more often than not, their interests took a backseat when they conflicted with Israel's.
But on Wednesday, to Israel's dismay, Saudi Arabia and Turkey orchestrated a historic meeting between Trump and Syria's newly crowned leader, and Trump portrayed his decision to lift sanctions on Damascus as a favor for his hosts, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Israel, still viewing Syria as a security risk and having advocated for sanctions to remain in place, was ignored - just one of several recent U.S. regional initiatives on which Israel seems to have missed the bus. Asked if he was aware that Israel opposed U.S. recognition of Syria's new government, Trump replied with a shrug, "I didn't ask them about that."
In the words of Sima Kadmon, a columnist for Israel's Yediot Ahronot daily, "This week there was a royal ball in the Middle East - a grand spectacle full of shiny baubles and cash exchanging hands - and we found ourselves playing the role of Cinderella before transformation." The fairy godmother, Kadmon lamented, had flown off to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Israel Sidelined
Trump skipped Israel on his first major foreign tour, opting instead for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Israel was also left out of a deal with Hamas to free an American hostage from Gaza, where Israel is waging a relentless campaign to crush the militant group. Meanwhile, Trump is holding talks with Iran on its nuclear program, a potential agreement that Israel strongly opposes. There have been no public spats between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the warmth between the two has cooled somewhat compared to their first term collaboration.
A Focus on Quick Wins
In his second term, Trump appears to be on the hunt for quick victories - bold investment deals to bolster the American economy and flashy diplomatic agreements like the India-Pakistan ceasefire and the release of hostages. Israel, however, has little to offer in this respect. Israel's 19-month campaign in Gaza, which has claimed tens of thousands of Palestinian lives and reduced entire towns to rubble, has yet to achieve either of Netanyahu's war aims - the defeat of Hamas or the return of all the hostages taken in the October 2023 attack that ignited the conflict.
Netanyahu has refused to end the war in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, or to accept a pathway to a Palestinian state - two significant demands for a historic normalization accord similar to the Abraham Accords.
"Trump has given Israel plenty of opportunities, and rounds of ammunition the Biden administration couldn't dream of, to end the war in Gaza. This is just what Trump wants," said Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations at Israel's Bar-Ilan and Reichman universities. Instead, the war continues to rage.
"Netanyahu is coming closer to the status of a loser in Trump's eyes," Gilboa concluded.
Trump Denies Rift and Few Expect Pressure Over Gaza
Trump has downplayed any rift with Israel, insisting that his relationships with regional leaders are "good for Israel." The irony is that Israel finds itself on the sidelines during a realignment in the Middle East that Israel, in large part, helped create. Israel's battering of Hezbollah in Lebanon hastened the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Iran may be more open to concessions after a wave of Israeli retaliatory strikes last year.
Michael Oren, a historian and former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., draws a comparison to Obama's first visit to the Middle East, when the President also skipping Israel. Oren, a critic of that administration who served as Israel's envoy to the U.S. at the time, said Obama repeatedly violated the unspoken rule of U.S.-Israeli relations – no surprises. This led to public spats with Netanyahu, especially around the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. Few expect a repeat under Trump - or that he will apply pressure on Israel to end its conflict with Hamas, despite the humanitarian catastrophe it has caused.
Trump has made it clear that the era of U.S. lectures to Middle Eastern countries is over. After decades of American intervention, Trump believes that U.S. attempts to meddle in the Middle East have done more harm than good. And the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not where he sees an easy win. "He's not looking for a fight with Israel," Oren said. "He wants to end the war, but the war can end in different ways."
Krauss writes for the Associated Press.
Further Reading
- Israel steps up attacks in Gaza and strikes ports in Yemen as Trump concludes trip through the region
- Trump says the U.S. and Iran have 'sort of' agreed on the terms for a nuclear deal
- Voices: Contributor: The Mideast's shape-shifting under Trump's second term – how will he reshape it?
Behind the Headlines: Insights into U.S.-Israel Relations
Under President Trump, the United States and Israel have maintained a strong alliance, with the U.S. providing robust military and strategic support, as well as alignment with Israel's regional policies. This partnership has been enhanced by the Abraham Accords - a historic normalization agreement signed during Trump's first term, leading to improved relationships with several Arab Gulf states.
However, regional conflicts, such as Israel's ongoing war against Hamas and Iranian-backed groups, as well as disinformation campaigns, continue to pose challenges to the alliance. Additionally, the broader Middle East policy of Trump's second term has introduced uncertainty, potentially impacting long-term alliances and peace efforts. In this context, the evolution of the U.S.-Israel relationship remains a significant factor in the region's ongoing political and security dynamics.
- The Trump administration's Middle East policy has led to a shift in the region's dynamics, sparking controversy and leaving Israel feeling sidelined in several issues, such as the war against Hamas and the talks with Iran.
- A columnist for Israel's Yediot Ahronot daily, Sima Kadmon, criticized the Israeli government, stating, "We found ourselves playing the role of Cinderella before transformation," suggesting Israel has been left out of important discussions and agreements.
- Israel's ongoing war in Gaza has raised questions about the effectiveness of its policy and its relationship with the U.S. under President Trump, as the administration has not put pressure on Israel to end the conflict, despite its humanitarian impact.
- Amidst Trump's pursuit of quick wins through trade deals and diplomatic agreements, Israel's contrasting Middle East policy has put it on the fringes, leading some experts to suggest that the Israeli Prime Minister may be losing favor with Trump.
