Can Ukraine Survive Alone in the Conflict with Russia? "Our Hopes Lie with the New German Chancellor"
"Our trust shifts to the new-office holder in Germany's Chancellery"
In the heart of Kyiv, conversations buzz about Ukraine's potential survival in the ongoing defensive war against Russia, with the US support seemingly dwindling under President Donald Trump. What's left of NATO's transatlantic backing? Can we expect peace? And if not, which weapons could tip the scale?
Ex-President Petro Poroschenko, on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum, expressed their predicament: "We're squared off at the front in a tough situation." Personnel, technology, ammo, and weapons, especially air defense, are scarce. "We're pinning our hopes on the new German Chancellor," Poroschenko added. "I've recently had a chat with him, and I was genuinely impressed by his dedication to beefing up Germany's leadership role across Europe." Everyone recognizes it's about more than just backing Ukraine – it's about fortifying European security.
Shaky Alliance in Politics
Ever since Trump took office, the Western alliance has showed chinks in its armor. Ukraine, where Russian forces have been entrenched for more than a decade and a large-scale war has been raging since February 2022, isn't prepared to accept this. This is a central theme in the opening address at the event, where experts from the Western world, including Germany, convene. Ukraine's ex-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk implored the allies, "We've done it 80 years ago, and we'll restore the world order again."
Weapons for Victory on the Battlefield
Yatsenyuk draws a historical parallel. When the "free world" sought a deal with Hitler in 1938, it was disastrous. "Hitler invaded Ukraine on a large scale." Today, Putin plays by different rules than Trump. He cautioned China and the Global South: "Those who claim neutrality or present themselves as mediators must acknowledge that you cannot stand on the sideline in this war; you need to pick a side, or you're complicit."
Trump's ex-Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker, expressed his perspective on potential peace efforts from the White House. "Putin will never accept peace," he stated bluntly. "We need military deterrence." Trump's administration exerts immense pressure on Ukraine but puts little pressure on Russia, Volker explained. Anti-Russian pressure must escalate sharply to force Moscow to agree to a ceasefire. Trump misunderstands Putin's motivations, Volker argued, because he's guided by what drives him: a good deal.
The Significance of Drones in the Modern Battleground
Merz believes a ceasefire in the coming days is possible. Yet, the question remains: which weapons could decide the war, sans US aid, which is on the verge of expiring? Drones are essential, asserts Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of an unmanned systems battalion. "Unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary systems. They are decisive on the battlefield." Shutenko insisted that Ukraine needs more drones to trounce Russia: "We need scalable drone production and a steady supply of drones to the Ukrainian military and frontline units."
This aligns with another roundtable discussing cutting-edge tech on the battlefield – or rather, agreeing on it: Military technology of the future is being developed in Ukraine. Innovation is fueled by the "will to live," says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. Within months, even weeks, weeks-worth of progress occurs. Communication between engineers and troops on the ground takes place during active deployment. Shymkow stressed that only the most advanced technologies can ensure soldiers' safety. This benefits the armaments industries of allies like Germany, Britain, and Portugal too.
The Crucial Role of Drones
However, Commander Shutenko thinks Ukraine can't win the war using drones alone: Well-trained infantry and attack unit personnel are crucial, but even more essential is consistent international support. Diplomatically, with sanctions, with air forces and artillery. "We need all this because we're fighting here in Ukraine against one of the most powerful armies on the planet. If we win, we'll inflict losses on the Russians that will make them beg for negotiations and peace."
Unfortunately, negotiations are not going smoothly for Ukraine. In a side interview, security expert Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, clarified that the US government's efforts until now have been largely misguided. "They're attempting to create peace without taking the history and reasons for the war into consideration. They treat both sides of the war equally and ignore the fact that Russia is the aggressor and the aggression is deliberate, planned, and calculated." Any concessions made to Russia won't rectify the situation, according to Kazdobina. "It only harms Ukraine."
Another European Power Shifts the Balance – Germany
In theory, Ukraine can adapt to life without US support. Europe, particularly Germany, can step up and fill the vacuum. Germany, as a key European player, could potentially play a decisive role in providing technology and resources.
While losing US support would pose considerable challenges for Ukraine, European allies could play a crucial role in providing financial and military aid. Germany, like other European nations, could provide economic aid with the utilization of seized frozen Russian assets. They could also provide more military aid, including weapons, technology, and systems not tied to US components. This would require strong political will from European countries.
Ukraine's efforts at domestic defense have been impressive, particularly in innovation and self-sufficiency. From producing software to combat drones, Ukraine's defense industry is expanding rapidly. However, developing advanced surface-to-air missile systems like the Patriot is complex and time-consuming, demanding substantial investment and expertise.
In conclusion, while losing US support would pose significant challenges for Ukraine, European allies could play a crucial role in providing financial and military aid. Germany, as a key European player, could potentially wield great influence in providing assistance. Ukraine's ability to innovate and build its own defense capabilities is vital for long-term survival.
- In the heart of Ukraine's political discourse, discussions revolve around the survival of the nation in the ongoing conflict with Russia, with the support from EC countries essential for economic and social cohesion.
- Ex-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, at the Kyiv Security Forum, appealed to the European alliance, stating that restoring the order of the world is crucial, as seen in past historical conflicts.
- NATO's support for Ukraine in the war-and-conflicts zone has been questioned due to the US administration's stance, with Germany emerging as a potential substitute for military and economic aid.
- The commander of an unmanned systems battalion, Vyacheslav Shutenko, highlighted the importance of drones in the modern battleground, emphasizing that Ukraine needs substantial drone production and supply for victory in the ongoing battle against Russia.
