The End of the World Delayed, Or Is It?
Title selection for this article is a complex matter – Milius, the feisty conservative and real-life inspiration for John Goodman's character in 'The Big Lebowski,' was the inspiration. Based on a hippie slogan: "Nirvana Now."
In recent weeks, American politics has been painted with a grim vision of what the nation might expect in the not-too-distant future – certainly not "Nirvana Now" or even "Apocalypse Now," but rather, something more akin to "Doomsday 2025."
The opinion section of 'The Washington Post' published an alarming article by Robert Kagan, with a warning, "Trump's dictatorial turn is inevitable. We should stop pretending." However, the article itself acknowledges that "nothing is inevitable in history."
The Atlantic asked 24 writers to ponder how former President Donald Trump could destroy American democracy if he returned to the White House after 13 months. David Frum, from The Atlantic, wrote, "A second term for Trump would plunge the country into another constitutional crisis like the one since the Civil War."
Trump himself, during a rally in Iowa, hinted at becoming a dictator but only on his first day in office – he didn't back down from misusing the President's power or the opportunity to make a profit at the expense of his critics. On Saturday, Trump dismissed allegations that he would threaten democracy as a "hoax" perpetrated by Democrats to distract from "scary power abuses by the left."
President Joe Biden hinted at the possibility that he might not run for reelection if Trump has to be prevented from winning, but later clarified that he would indeed run. The following day, a CNN poll showed Biden's approval rating had dropped to 37%, a 8-point decrease since January, despite a generally struggling economy.
Future of U.S. Politics
A risky future awaits the United States if Donald Trump returns for a second term, and many are concerned about the potential consequences. Historian Julian Zelizer identified seven reasons for concern, including the fact that Trump would give imperial presidency new meaning and demonstrate power no former historian could have imagined.
The rival Republican candidates in the primaries have an obligation to make voters aware of the risks associated with a Trump victory, and President Biden and Democrats should make it clear what is at stake.
Preparing for the worst is understandable, even though it is still early. By the time of the election, there will still be approximately 330 days left, and more than 400 days until the inauguration in 2025. No presidential primary votes have been cast yet.
However, one should be cautious when making predictions, especially given the unpredictable nature of the economy and geopolitical situation, as well as the possibility of unexpected events, such as a "Black Swan" occurrence.
Presidential Debates
The fourth and final Republican primary debate was marked by a reduced field and increasingly aggressive attacks on former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose polling numbers indicated a noticeable surge. The articulate rebuke of Trump's "Day One" comments by Chris Christie even drew praise as the "best speech delivered in a presidential debate ever."
Errol Lewis noted that Christie was the only candidate who dared to challenge Trump directly and wrote, "The bizarre final Republican primary debate of 2023 was full of bitter, personal attacks from the candidates. Trump is on track to lose, as all but one of the other challengers are afraid to confront him directly."
Republican candidate Jeff Duncan noted, "The Republicans need to do two things to beat Trump: consolidate the field and be prepared to challenge the frontrunner. We have succeeded in the first – the field today is half its size compared to the fourth debate in 2015. Let's hope that this debate marks the beginning of the second."
Miscellaneous Topics
A recent op-ed piece in 'The Washington Post' discussed apparent concerns about antisemitism on college campuses, with Harvard, MIT, and the University of Pennsylvania's presidents unable to answer whether supporting genocide against Jews violates the universities' policies. The article received criticism for vague and evasive answers.
Future Oil Price and Climate Crisis
The global climate summit, COP28, took place in the United Arab Emirates, where oil is abundant, with the COP chair being Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of an energy company and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Critics claim that having an oil industry executive leading the climate conference is akin to "asking the National Rifle Association to host a seminar on gun control."
The importance of the oil industry and the future of energy prices were topics of discussion at COP28, with many emphasizing the need for a global transition towards renewable energy resources.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as Israel and the Gaza Strip clash, and widespread antisemitic incidents are reported. In response, some have called for international action to protect the freedom of navigation in the region.
Finally, a debate over Taylor Swift's selection as the Time Magazine's "Person of the Year" has gained traction, with some arguing that the award may not be deserved, given the numerous celebrities and influential figures in 2023.
Enrichment Data
Predictions for a potential second term of former U.S. President Donald Trump's presidency, based on recent political events and opinions, include several key areas of concern and potential implications:
- Domestic Policy and Politics:
- Regulatory Changes: The Trump administration is expected to continue its deregulatory agenda, which could lead to significant policy changes in areas like environmental regulation, labor laws, and healthcare policies[5].
- Economic Policies: Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, could complicate efforts to tackle inflation and reduce the cost of living for U.S. citizens. Tariffs on goods from countries like Canada, Mexico, and China might increase prices for consumers initially[4].
- Social Media and Technology: Trump's actions on social media platforms and cryptocurrency suggest a willingness to use technology to drive change, which could lead to new regulatory challenges and shifts in public expectations[4].
- International Relations:
- US-China Relations: A trade war between the U.S. and China is likely, with Trump potentially keeping or increasing tariffs on Chinese goods. This could lead to a dramatic shift in the U.S.-China relationship, with experts warning about the complexity of achieving a deal[4].
- Middle East Peace: Trump's efforts to broker Middle East peace might not lead to lasting solutions, given the complex dynamics in the region, particularly with Iran[4].
- NATO and Transatlantic Relations: Trump's skepticism about NATO and his belief that Europe should take more responsibility for its own defense could lead to significant changes in transatlantic relations. This could result in a reevaluation of the U.S.'s commitment to NATO and potentially strain alliances[1].
- Global Impact:
- European Influence: Trump's influence is seen in various European countries, particularly through figures like Elon Musk, who is expanding his political reach. This could lead to a more conservative and potentially divisive influence in European politics[1].
- China's Actions on Taiwan: Trump's ambiguous stance on defending Taiwan could embolden China to increase pressure on Taiwan, potentially leading to heightened tensions in the region[1].
- Electoral and Political Dynamics:
- UK Politics: The potential influence of Trump and figures like Elon Musk could impact UK politics, particularly if other parties are seen as too aligned with Trump. This might play to the advantage of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party in the longer term[1].
- Polarization: The U.S. remains politically polarized, and Trump's presidency is expected to continue this trend. Experts warn about the unusual nature of his presidency and the challenges it poses for governance and rule of law[4].
Overall, a second term for Trump would likely be characterized by significant domestic and international policy changes, including continued deregulation, a potentially tumultuous trade relationship with China, and ongoing challenges in international relations and global governance.
