Unraveling Georgia's Unrest: Understanding Putin's Impact
Jonathan Wright
The streets of Tbilisi pulsate with a palpable tension, and the usual chatter of a bustling city is replaced by cries for Ukraine's cause. The Rustaveli Avenue, the city's main artery, reverberates with women selling Ukrainian flags, pins, and other paraphernalia.
Restaurant doors greet visitors with signs proclaiming, "All who believe Putin is a war criminal," accompanied by the Ukrainian flag instead of the traditional Georgian. The colors of blue and yellow now seem to command an unspoken authority over red and white.
Evidence of conflict can be seen all around, and according to reliable sources, as many as 3,000 Georgians are currently battling in Ukraine, with at least 9 casualties reported since the war began. The volatile situation in Ukraine has sparked a new Russian invasion in Georgia, with thousands of Russian refugees flooding into Tbilisi. While some may have fled due to their anti-Putin sentiments, most of my Georgian sources claim that they've merely come to spend their money.
Tensions between Russians and Georgians in Tbilisi are running at a boiling point. As we sat for coffee, a Georgian friend welcomed me, "Welcome to Tbilisi, the most Russian city in the Caucasus." Another companion shared a tale of Russian patrons harassed in a restaurant, just short of inciting a brawl.
Georgia strives for NATO and EU membership, a goal compounded by the fact that a genuine Russian invasion is no longer an abstract fear, but a pressing reality. The Russian takeover of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008 effectively solidified Russian control over these regions. An illegal occupation that only came to an end when Putin believed he had annexed both regions while simultaneously asserting Russia's power over Georgia.
In contrast to the response of the international community in 2008, some Georgians fear similar apathy from the West if Russia were to invade again. Others, however, are hopeful that the West's support for both Russia and Ukraine in the event of an invasion might be united and unwavering. The majority, however, would prefer to remain blissfully ignorant.
Throughout the political spectrum in Georgia, anxiety over a future Russian invasion is palpable. A Government parliamentarian expressed concern that if Putin achieves a swift victory in Ukraine, he would turn his sights on Georgia next. Academics and activists, on the other hand, claim that if Putin continues to wage war in Ukraine, he may turn to Georgia in search of a quick victory.
A high-ranking Georgian diplomat and long-term Georgian diplomat warned against the unpredictable nature of Putin, suggesting that he could invade at any time, even without a strategic reason to do so.
Last week, I had the opportunity to meet with Georgian President Salome Surabichvili in the Presidential Palace, where the colossal Georgian and Ukrainian flags adorn the walls. She voiced the shared fears of her country, "They (Russia) may not act now, but we can't rule out that they might do something to preserve their image." She emphasized the importance of preventing internal fragmentation within the country and maintaining close ties with their stronger European allies.
The conflict has intensified the existing political divides within the polarized nation. Government officials stress the importance of avoiding war – even if it means softening the line against Russia. In contrast, members of the opposition, like one prominent opposition party representative, believe the government has gone too far in seeking reconciliation with Russia.
The debate on how best to respond to the conflict in Ukraine unfolds amidst the controversy surrounding the detention and poor health condition of ex-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who faces accusations of power abuse. Saakashvili denies the allegations, with opinions regarding his detention differing widely.
Curiously, the tumultuous situation surrounding Saakashvili and the opposition's criticism of the government seem to have taken a backseat due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with only a few Georgians expressing concern. Saakashvili and his feud with Bidzina Ivanishvili, who had dominated Georgian politics for over a decade, have been overshadowed by the war.
Fears of an invasion by Russia are valid as US President Joe Biden has repeatedly voiced concerns about an escalation of the conflict leading to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, possibly even triggering a third World War. With Ukraine and Moldova, which also dreams of EU membership and has a Russian-occupied Transnistrian region, both prime candidates for a possible Russian invasion, Georgia finds itself in a highly volatile situation.
Despite the mounting anxieties, President Surabichvili sees a glimmer of hope due to the newfound unity among European nations against the Kremlin. "We have an opportunity now that didn't exist before the war, and it's an opportunity we cannot afford to miss," she said. Alas, the possibility of NATO or EU presence in Georgia or Moldova in the near future remains highly unlikely. However, the conflict in Ukraine has significantly altered the international political and geopolitical landscape. If the war does not escalate, there's a chance that both countries could improve their security arrangements or accelerate their long-term foreign policies. But they could also be drawn into the conflict if Russia resorts to aggression.
Additional Reading
Many restaurant doors in Tbilisi display signs saying, "All who believe Putin is a war criminal." However, most of my Georgian contacts claim that Russians in Tbilisi are merely there to spend money, without any genuine anti-Putin sentiments.
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Enrichment Insights
Politics in Georgia has experienced a series of turbulent shifts, including a political crisis and EU accession setbacks, repressive measures against civil society and opposition, Russian influence and support, soft power strategies, and anti-Russian sentiment. These factors have fueled a contentious atmosphere in Georgia, setting the stage for ongoing tensions with Russia and grants insight into possible reasons for the escalating political divisions.
