Title: The Election Impact of Reproductive Rights
Gina Grantz
Today, a wave of shock and dismay is sweeping the nation - and more women than ever, particularly those under 45 - over the repeal of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision. The Supreme Court's latest move raises a vital question: can we trust candidates who advocate for limiting or overturning reproductive rights?
The majority of Democratic women - and a smaller group of Republican women - likely believe that candidates who support overturning Roe cannot truly trust women to make their own reproductive health decisions or care about the potentially damaging economic consequences of reproductive health issues. These candidates create trust barriers, putting them at a disadvantage in the election race, which could soften the blow for the Democrats in the upcoming midterms.
Historical Precedent as a Guide
The current environment bears striking similarities to the period from 1989-1992, and there's valuable insight to draw from that era. In 1989, the Supreme Court in the Webster v. Reproductive Health Services case confirmed restrictions on using state funds, facilities, and employees for abortion, and legislations like Missouri's pro-life bill were struck down.
During the first Gulf War in 1990, popular cries for an economic recovery colored the political landscape, and Bill Clinton's campaign slogan, "It's the economy, stupid," resonated with voters.
But abortion remained a significant election driver. In 1989 and 1990, pro-Roe advocates secured gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey. The following year, three pro-life challengers, including Ann Richards in Texas, lost elections. From 1989 to 1993, female representation in the House of Representatives grew from 29 to 48 members, with Barbara Mikulski and Nancy Kassebaum becoming the first two women in the Senate in 1990. This growth continued in 1992 with a record four new senators, all pro-choice advocates.
Studies of the time reveal that positions on reproductive rights served as crucial vote influencers. In a 1990 survey, more than 50% of voters considered the candidates' positions on abortion when voting, indicating that crossing party lines was possible to support reproductive rights candidates.
Data Analysis: The 1992 U.S. National Election Study
The 1992 U.S. National Election Study led by Alan Abramowitz displayed that reproductive rights issues split both Democratic and Republican voters, but a larger proportion of conservative pro-life Republicans abandoned their party's candidates than their liberal counterparts.
Private Stories, Public Impact
Former New Jersey Governor Jim Florio recounted his fiancée, a teacher, telling him in 1989 that support for abortion was necessary to avoid a wedding cancellation. Similar stories emerged of elected officials' spouses and children switching political allegiances due to reproductive rights concerns. While surveys do not capture the impact of these personal conversations on voting behavior, they are undoubtedly influential.
Prioritizing Issues in Elections
A recent CNN poll shows that abortion is not a top issue for voters and is not considered a strong motivator, but it remains crucial in shaping problems and motivations. What truly impacts elections is the "thing" that tips the balance.
Perspectives Changing with Generations
Although Roe remains a divisive issue, a 2022 CNN poll found that 60% of Americans know someone who has had an abortion. This familiarity shifts the discussion from constitutional arguments to personal connections.
The Power of Millennial and Gen Z Voters
67% of voters under 45 say that they would be angry if Roe was overturned, while 50:50 Republican under-45s and Republican-leaning independents are divided on the issue. This unevenness presents genuine crossover voting potential. In a tight race, these voters may struggle to envision a world without Roe, leading to misgivings and potential shifts in their voting decisions.
1992: A Wave of Protests
In 1992, half a million people Protested in Washington to support the right to abortion, with protests breaking out nationwide. These demonstrations occurred before the widespread use of the internet or social media, highlighting the importance of tapping into current sentiments and transforming them into organized opposition to candidates advocating for Roe's repeal.
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By harnessing public sentiment and transforming it into organized opposition, candidates can effectively sway voters by appealing to their pro-choice beliefs and addressing their concerns.
