Opinion: The Persistent Grey Cloud of Climate Change
Here's another slice of reality – straight from the headlines.
John D. Sutter
But unfortunately, I've got more bad news to share.
I don't think these catastrophes will succeed in curbing fossil fuel pollution, despite the grim straits we find ourselves in.
Let me explain.
Firstly, societal sciences don't support the belief that catastrophic climate events will lead to widespread shifts in public opinion. A 2021 study published in "Climate Change" revealed that hurricanes make only modest contributions to reducing CO2 emissions.
Other disasters listed in the study included wildfires and floods, which had no impact on people's lives.
Consider this for a moment. Yes, research shows that areas devastated by hurricanes in the U.S. have witnessed a significant rise in the belief that climate change is underway and man-made. Yet, even in this study, it's noted that this trend appears to be slowing down.
"Our findings suggest that multiple hurricanes might be needed to affect a county, causing the share of people who support guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions to increase by one percentage point," noted the researchers.
Also, "It seems unlikely that an increase in the frequency of natural disasters will have a significant impact on public support for climate change mitigation policies," said Jordan Suter, a professor at Colorado State University and an author of the study. Email.
In other words, catastrophes might not provide the solution to our predicament.
Moving on to a peculiar little concept known as "Moving Baselines."
Daniel Pauly, a fisheries biologist, coined the term in the '90s, to describe our unfortunate inability to notice subtle changes in the world around us.
For us, fires only get our attention if they grow in size.
These changes may be 'weird and unusual' for us, but we don't truly feel the full brunt of the climate crisis – a phenomenon that has been unfolding over decades and centuries.
Research by Fran Moores at UC Davis has expanded our understanding of this detrimental phenomenon. By examining thousands of social media entries about the weather, she concluded that our 'memory peg' – the reference point we use to judge if the present weather is unseasonably 'hot' – is only two to eight years old. It moves with us over time.
In these circumstances, catastrophes don't trigger our alarm bells.
I've produced a documentary on this subject titled "Baseline: Part 1." It follows the stories of four young individuals who will confront this crisis from now until 2050.
I hope it might serve as a sort of antidote, an extension of our collective memory.
However, addressing these problems isn't easy.
What drives us to tackle climate change proactively?
A significant part of this question concerns who we refer to as 'us.'
"We" could be the American voters. According to a survey conducted by the Yale Climate Change Communication Project, 72% of Americans already (correctly) believe in global warming. Nearly 60% know that it's human-induced.
"We" might be well-off individuals, perhaps like many homeowners in Orange County.
"We" could be the few oil and gas companies that stand to gain from the apocalypse.
Or "we" could be the congressmen who have repeatedly failed to pass meaningful legislation to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050.
In conclusion, it's crucial to influence decision-makers and legislators. Which arguments will resonate with them, given the profits to be made from fossil fuels, political divisions, the war in Ukraine, and more, is an open question. Nancy Pelosi recently said at the Aspen Ideas: Climate Festival that climate action was 'necessary for the children.'
The truth is, since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, children have been pleading with adults to take action against environmental collapse. Greta Thunberg and many others have joined the movement.
"[Democrats] seem not to even understand that they have a unique opportunity to pass meaningful climate legislation," wrote Robinson Meyer in The Atlantic.
So I offer no easy solutions for us – whomever 'us' may be.
The evidence has been with us for decades.
We've seen a disaster. It impacts the most marginalized and poor people of the world, those least able to mitigate and adapt to its effects. Yet, it also touches the wealthy – think of the villas in Orange County, not just Sandy in New York in 2012, but also those eroded cliffs in Malibu.
Footnotes
These findings suggest that natural disasters may not significantly influence public support for climate change mitigation measures.
Enrichment Data:
The 'Moving Baselines' theory impacts our recognition and response to climate change impacts from natural disasters by changing how we define and identify these events. Here's how:Adapting to Climate Change: The concept of moving baselines involves adjusting historical climate data to account for ongoing climate changes, allowing precision in isolating extreme events from the long-term warming trend. This yields a more accurate depiction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and species[2].Marine Heatwaves (MHWs): In the realm of marine heatwaves, moving baselines can minimize the reported increase in MHW days and event durations, suggesting that some of its ostensible growth might be attributable to the ongoing warming trend rather than actual changes in frequency and duration[2].Species Adaptability: The method of baseline selection depends on a species' adaptability. Moving baselines is suitable for species that are resilient to gradual temperature shifts, while fixed baselines work better for less adaptable species, which are sensitive to specific temperature thresholds, potentially indicating potential risks[2].Ecosystems’ Impacts Assessment: The selection of a baseline method influences marine heatwave characterization and their effects on ecosystems. Fixed baselines suggest a substantial increase in both MHW numbers and durations, while moving baselines present less pronounced growth. This discrepancy highlights the significance of employing a method tailored to the species' adaptability and the intended impact assessment[2].
In summary, the 'Moving Baselines' notion can help us recognize and respond to climate change impacts by offering a more nuanced perspective on natural disaster changes, particularly marine heatwaves, through acknowledging ongoing climate changes and the adaptability of species. This approach supplies more precise assessments and targeted responses to mitigate climate change's effects on ecosystems.
