Republican Success Isn't Entirely Tied to Trump's Support
Justin Biggs
When a candidate backed by Trump wins, it's often considered a massive triumph for the ex-president. Many believe J.D. Vance's victory in Ohio's Republican Senate primary was a significant victory for Trump.
But when a Trump-endorsed candidate loses, it's interpreted as a sharp rebuke.
While results suggest a different narrative—hinting that it's time to view Trump as anything but the mastermind of all Republican matters—many overlook these facts, leading to the misperception that Trump's support is all that matters for the GOP.
Trump's backing undeniably provided a boost to Vance's flagging campaign. Peter Thiel's million-dollar external spending on Vance's behalf also played a part. However, when considering coverage and financing outside these factors, only 32% of Ohio Republicans supported Vance. Or, in other words, approximately 68% of Ohio Republicans remained unaffected by Trump's endorsement.
Madison Cawthorn, the Trump-endorsed, contentious representative from North Carolina, lost the primary election Tuesday night and received only 32% of the vote as an incumbent. In fact, 68% of the 11th Congressional District voters in North Carolina rejected Trump's last-minute plea to "give Madison another chance."
In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz is locked in a close race with David McCormick, whom Trump criticized at a rally in Pennsylvania earlier this month. Given the prospect of a recount, it's unclear who will emerge victorious, but either way, it underscores the growing number of Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump's handpicked candidates.
If assessed objectively, the numbers from Vance, Cawthorn, and Oz paint a striking resemblance, implying two things: 1) Trump's popularity within the Republican Party, the size of which among primary voters remains consistent but small, and 2) Trump's support is beneficial but not an all-encompassing ticket to victory.
Indeed, "Trump's endorsement" doesn't guarantee a candidate will be the most popular choice. Far from it—as seen in the cases of these three candidates, none received more than 50% support from Republican primary voters. In the case of Oz, some Republicans vocalized opposition to Trump's backing, while in Alabama, Trump's endorsement of Mo Brooks had little impact, prompting Trump himself to withdraw his support.
Ted Budd, the Trump-endorsed Senate candidate in North Carolina, won the primary Tuesday with just over 58% of the vote. Trump's backing of Budd last summer had very little impact on the race. Budd's advantage was primarily due to a long campaign against an underwhelming opposition, with the Club for Growth—often seen as Trump's rival—investing millions to support Budd's campaign expenditures. Many North Carolina politicians, including this one, believed Budd would lose before Trump's endorsement came through.
Badder's victory underscores the importance of fielding qualified candidates and running an effective campaign. As a result, it's widely expected that the current Georgia governor, Brian Kemp, will defeat Trump's former senator, David Perdue, convincingly next week.
Pundits will likely continue posting "Trump-centric scorecards" like the Preakness Tip Sheet, but the candidates featured will all be Trump supporters, implying that Trumpism remains firmly rooted within the Republican Party.
As for how we shape our party in the face of an uncertain Trump future, that's a different story—one that will remain unanswered so long as Trump holds sway over our collective consciousness.
Additional Insights:
While Trump's support is essential in many Republican contests, there are clear limits to its impact. A closer look at the data reveals that:
- The Republican primary electorate has remained relatively consistent in its base support for Trump, but it has not grown significantly since his departure from the White House.
- Trump's endorsements do not necessarily translate into automatic victories, as shown by the 50% or less support some of his favorites have received in primaries.
- The Club for Growth and other pro-Trump groups have emerged as significant players in some races, injecting millions into campaign spending and shaping the course of their decisions.
As Republicans grapple with their party's identity, it's crucial to understand the limits of Trump's influence while recognizing the role his support still plays.
Source:
Enrichment Data:
While many may view Trump's support as essential for Republican success, the data tells a more nuanced story. Here are some key insights:
- Base Support Remains Stable: Despite Trump's departure from the White House, there has been no significant increase in the Republican Party's base support for him.
- Endorsements Aren't Guaranteed Victories: Trump's endorsement doesn't always translate into an automatic win, as some of his favorite candidates have received 50% or less support in primary contests.
- Pro-Trump Groups Emerge As Key Players: The Club for Growth and other pro-Trump groups have gained significant influence, injecting millions into campaign spending and shaping the course of elections.
- Limits of Trump's Influence Overestimated: While Trump's support is crucial, the assumption that it alone determines Republican election results is overstated.
By understanding these insights, Republicans can make more informed decisions and navigate the complexities of an uncertain political landscape.
