Opinion: Dark clouds gathering for Democrats

Tales of Trouble Gathering for the Democrats

Ever since Joe Biden became the President, it's been clear that the midterms might not go their way. That's because he began his presidency with slim majorities both in the House and the Senate. Senator Joe Manchin has been a thorn in Biden's side, blocking the Build Back Better bill, while the Republicans have been stalling the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in the Senate. And new polling data from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research reveals that only 39 % of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, the lowest of his presidency.

Three major factors could make things even worse for the Democrats.

First, the war in Ukraine is causing global instability, and unrest abroad can have ripple effects on the world economy and supply chains. Although Biden has successfully supported Ukraine, allied with NATO, and avoided direct conflict with Russia, his handling of the war hasn't gained much support from voters: 54 % say he isn't tough enough, according to a recent AP-NORC poll.

Then came Covid-19. Biden's ability to restore a sense of normalcy and curb the spread of the virus was a major factor in his 2020 victory. But despite significant progress in reducing hospitalizations due to vaccines and treatments, the pandemic remains relentless. Over million Americans have died from it, and new cases are on the rise again.

Furthermore, the government's public health messaging has often caused confusion. Local and state guidelines vary widely, and many areas have resisted reimposing coronavirus restrictions despite a surge in cases. Federal courts have also undermined crucial approvals, and new Omicron variants continue to create chaos. The closer the midterms get, the worse things could get; the White House has warned that up to 100 million people could get infected by the fall and winter.

Despite numerous warnings of disastrous consequences, Congress has yet to pass the proposed $10 billion emergency Covid-19 relief package suggested by the administration. While it's the Republicans' responsibility to block funding during the immigration debate, the public is likely to blame Biden if the situation worsens and a large number of refugees fail to arrive or crucial supplies like tests and treatments become unavailable without delay.

The economy is another concern. The past month has been filled with warning signs. Dems doing well to remember former political strategist James Carville's famous quote: "It's the economy, stupid!" Inflation remains a persistent problem, despite initial economic theory predictions that prices would rise and supply would increase, setting off chain reactions. The consumer price index climbed by 8.3 % in April 2022 compared to the same period last year. Although the unemployment rate has dropped to a record low of 3.6 %, consumer sentiment on the economy remains pessimistic.

At a Democratic caucus meeting in the House of Representatives, Rep. Katie Porter urged her colleagues to take inflation and the stress it causes for American families seriously. She shared her recent experience at a supermarket, where she discovered that the price of bacon had nearly doubled to almost $10 per pound. When a fellow Democrat pointed out that the issue didn't seem to be raised in the surveys, Porter responded, "Well, you know what you should ask then." Democrats should heed Porter's warning about the concerns of ordinary people.

The Federal Reserve has begun raising interest rates to curb inflation, while also raising fears of a recession. Meanwhile, an unusually volatile month on Wall Street had the S&P 500 briefly entering bear market territory. Many economists believe the situation will worsen before it improves. However, there's debate over whether this will lead to a long-term stagflation.

None of these scenarios is good for the Democrats. Historical trends show that negative economic conditions have hurt the party of the president before. In 1982, unemployment stood at over 10 % during what was called the "Reagan recession", and the Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 2010, the Democrats suffered a crushing defeat in the House as the country continued to struggle with the economic fallout of the 2008 financial crisis and recession.

Although Reagan and Obama went on to win re-election, their midterm losses led to power shifts in Congress with far-reaching consequences for their agendas. Reagan found the House a significant obstacle in achieving many of his goals. The Democrats managed to block the most ambitious attempts to scrap Social Security and forced compromises on issues like Social Security reform.

After the 2010 midterms, Obama was no longer able to enjoy the type of legislative support he had during his first two terms. Instead, he wrestled with congressional members over budget issues, threatening to plunge the country into default. Obama turned to executive actions to achieve results in areas like immigration reform.

Certainly, the Democrats can still take steps between now and the midterms to soften the blow to the political establishment. If the government can make quick gains against inflation by lowering the tariffs Trump imposed on China and calming investor confidence, voters may be less likely to rebel come November.

But this requires effective messaging that often eludes the Biden Administration. Democrats must highlight underappreciated achievements and address issues like student debt, showing that the government is making concrete progress.

Democrats can also focus on the radical nature of the Republican Party and the threat to democracy posed by Trump-backed candidates. Previous appeals to this rhetoric have worked in the past. In 1998, Democrats effectively highlighted Newt Gingrich's extreme tactics and successfully turned public opinion against him. In 2022, if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, the Democrats would be wise to channel public outrage and boost voter turnout.

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