Title: Promise-Driven Leadership in 2024: Potential Keys to the White House
Author: Dr. Julian Zelizer
Since stepping into office, President Joe Biden has faced formidable challenges, including Russia's war in Ukraine, economic struggles, and the looming threat of inflation. With daily expenses stretched to the limit, from grocery shopping to home heating, citizens search for relief.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates aims to curb inflation but results in increased volatility on stock markets and a cooling housing market. The recent banking turmoil in Silicon Valley has shaken trust worldwide, triggering US government interventions to curb the financial panics' spread.
Beneath the surface, cultural rifts spawned by ongoing identity and education debates intensify. Local communities grapple with unsettling feelings (some all-consuming fears). Given Americans' gloomy outlook on the future, a Gallup survey revealed that 90% anticipate 2023 to be a turbulent political year, with 85% forecasting global strife and 80% domestic discord.
Should conditions not drastically improve, the 2024 presidential race will likely unfold against this grim backdrop. While some voters vent their political frustration by consuming round-the-clock news, most yearn for escape from the toxic politicking and a return to their daily routines.
As the US grapples with seemingly endless crises, a longing for stability by 2024 will likely emerge as a dominant theme. Looking back at electoral history, chaos was not a common precursor to the campaigns we confront today. In 2000, the US budget boasted a surplus, and the economy thrived. Despite the dotcom bubble burst and economic uncertainties, the 1990s until 2000 represented the United States' longest period of economic expansion during that time. Trust in the economy was sky-high, and US troops weren't embroiled in global conflicts.
While lesser-known elections, like 1980, featured compelling challenges, Al Gore framed himself as the best-prepared candidate to maintain prosperity. Meanwhile, George W. Bush positioned himself as an empathetic conservative who could bridge the education gap. Although campaigns often heated up before the elections, debate centered primarily around Gore's proposals for strengthening social security and Bush's emphasis on compassionate conservatism.
Following the turbulent 1960s, Jimmy Carter ran for reelection in 1980, facing California Governor Ronald Reagan, and Reagan's conservative agenda promised a return to stability and safety. Inflation, the energy crisis, and high unemployment plagued the country while tensions over Iranian hostages escalated, and Soviet tanks rolled into Afghanistan. Many voters felt Carter was overwhelmed, but Reagan delivered convincing promises of a stronger, more secure future.
A 2024 scene resembling Carter's struggles is not far-fetched. President Biden and Vice President Harris must navigate the myriad ongoing crises while simultaneously offering solutions. Like Carter, they share the challenge of keeping voters focused on the issues rather than personalizing their image. Biden has established himself as a thoughtful, responsible, and moderate politician in the American political landscape. Republicans face their own conundrum as they strive to resurrect their party, which failed to establish a new platform in 2020. With Trump still the subject of ongoing investigations, if he mounts the Republican ticket in 2024, he will remind voters of his tumultuous first term and its consequences.
If Ron DeSantis decides to run for the presidency, he will capitalize on Florida's success as governor and emphasize his role in navigating the cultural debates. The candidate that can most effectively convince voters they can manage every crisis and restore stability will emerge as the election front-runner in a time when the pursuit of stability is of the utmost importance.
