Opinion: Biden should not conflate Taiwan with Ukraine

Biden's Warning on Taiwan and the Power Struggle in the Pacific

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It seems plain as day that the United States has made its stance crystal clear in opposition to China's aggressive expansion in the oceans and coastal islands, determined to either resist or contain the potential costs of an attack on Taiwan or a U.S. ally in the region. With Biden's meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, the common leaders acknowledged their consistent positions regarding Taiwan and reiterated the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as fundamental factors for both security and international social prosperity.

Japan has taken advantage of this opportunity to strengthen its strategic relationship with the U.S., even suggesting a doubling of its defense budget from 1% to 2% of its GDP — the very figure that NATO requires from its member states. Additionally, Shikoku, the fourth largest island of Japan, may serve as a critical base for U.S. operations in the region to challenge and contain China's aggressive actions that threaten U.S. interests.

Taiwan, the likely flashpoint, is under constant threat as China has announced a series of military drills in the South China Sea amidst Biden's Pacific tour. This move by China comes as a direct warning to the U.S., urging them to back off and avoid pushing China into a corner. However, China's paranoia and ambition to become a major power have fueled the creation of military bases on at least 20 Paracel and seven Spratly Islands, all equipped with runways, air defense systems, and missile launchers.

Recent tensions in the region have raised alarm for both Taiwan and the U.S. China's military has launched over 500 aerial attacks on Taiwan's defense zones since September 2020 and has positioned thousands of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles along its own coast, some even targeting Taiwan. Despite this, Taiwan is not fully prepared for a comprehensive amphibious ground, air, and sea invasion, given its comparatively small armed forces of 188,000 men, with many of its troops ill-equipped to mount a successful defense against a determined assault, given China's vast military forces.

While the region's strategic waterways are crucial to China's economy, the potential costs of military action against Taiwan later prove to be a disadvantage. U.S. President Joe Biden and his advisors have been cautious in their stance, emphasizing non-provocative actions and diplomatic engagement to resolve the issues at hand.

However, China's recent escalations have raised concerns about the potential for a crisis. China's "grey zone" strategy aims to put constant psychological pressure on Taiwan, ensuring that Taiwanese people remain aware of the numerous threats they face. China even sent massive sand-filling ships to practice breaking the will of Taiwan's forces by breaching deterrent islands in the event of an invasion.

Despite the tensions, China has made it clear that it recognizes its weaknesses. Taiwan, as an island, is vulnerable to air and sea blockades, which can easily disrupt its supply chains. Furthermore, China's nuclear arsenal still falls short of matching the U.S. and Russia's capabilities, with only an estimated 350 nuclear warheads in contrast to the U.S.'s 5,500.

Critics argue that Biden thrives on exacerbating tensions with China rather than seeking diplomatic solutions. This assessment overlooks Biden's focus on projecting a firm stance in the Pacific region, reflecting the growing strategic importance of the region in U.S. foreign policy. Biden's approach is not to antagonize China but to maintain a balance between addressing threats and fostering cooperation when it is feasible.

TL;DR

President Joe Biden has reinforced the U.S. stance on resisting China's aggressive expansion in the Pacific, emphasizing peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The focus is on constructing strategic partnerships with Japan and other regional allies to deter Chinese aggression. The Taiwan Strait remains a significant flashpoint, with China conducting military drills and exerting pressure on countries not to provoke escalation. At the moment, neither Taiwan nor the U.S. is fully prepared for a full-scale military invasion, making the situation a delicate balance of diplomacy, deterrence, and military capability.

Enrichment Data

China's ongoing military exercises and provocations in the Taiwan Strait have raised tensions between China and the United States. Here are some key points to note:

Chinese military exercises: China has been escalating its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, conducting regular patrols of long-range bombers, fighter jets, naval vessels, and surface-to-surface missiles. These actions aim to test and prepare for potential military invasions and border skirmishes.
U.S. response: The United States has responded by deploying warships and aircraft to the region and issuing diplomatic statements, expressing its commitment to defend Taiwan and uphold its international obligations.
Taiwan’s Perspective: Taiwan has also bolstered its military capabilities, including upgrading its missile defense systems and expanding their naval fleet. Taiwan's leadership has also emphasized the importance of engaging with the international community and maintaining a strong defense to deter Chinese aggression.