OpenAI’s AI dominance fades as Gemini and rivals close the gap in 2025
OpenAI’s dominance in the AI chatbot market is slipping as rivals gain ground. The company, once holding an 87% share with ChatGPT, saw its lead shrink to 68% by 2025. Meanwhile, ambitious growth plans and a potential public listing could reshape its future—and the wider tech sector.
In 2025, OpenAI’s ChatGPT enjoyed near-total control of the AI chatbot market. But competition intensified as Alphabet’s Gemini surged from 5% to 18% market share. The shift gained momentum after the November 2025 launch of Gemini 3, which earned strong reviews and further narrowed the gap. Apple’s decision to integrate Gemini into Siri also gave Alphabet’s model a significant boost.
OpenAI now faces financial and strategic challenges. HSBC estimates the company needs over $200 billion to fund its expansion plans. Reports suggest it may go public, with a potential valuation of $1 trillion. Yet, its shrinking market share could affect investor confidence and planned spending deals across the AI industry. The rapid growth of AI is also straining energy infrastructure. Data centres and electric vehicles are driving electricity demand beyond current supply. This bottleneck creates opportunities for firms like Itron, which specialises in smart grid management, and Tesla, whose energy storage solutions—Powerwalls and Megapacks—help ease supply constraints. Analysts expect both companies to benefit from these trends in 2026. Market volatility could add another layer of uncertainty. Stock corrections of at least 10% occur roughly every one to two years, with the last one happening in early 2025. If history repeats, another dip may arrive in late 2026, potentially impacting AI-related investments.
OpenAI’s path forward depends on securing massive funding while fending off rivals like Gemini. The company’s potential IPO and energy sector pressures will shape its next moves. For now, its declining market share signals a more competitive AI landscape, with broader implications for tech spending and stock performance.
