Online gambling revenue in the Netherlands experiences a significant decline due to new affordability checks.
The Dutch gambling scene's in a whirlwind, thanks to tightened affordability checks and the government's aggressive approach. Industry insiders are shouting "Red alert!" as they brace for a mass exodus to the black market and an uncertain future for legit operators.
As the government tightens wallet-watching measures, deposits limits are going up, and taxes are set to soar. Both online and brick-and-mortar gaming establishments are struggling to keep their heads above water.
Revenue plunges after checks kick in:The Dutch gambling market, which had been on a growth spree, saw a significant drop in Q4 of 2024. Despite a 6.2% increase in overall gaming revenue to €1.47 billion, the final months of the year showed a sharp decline. The Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA) reports that online gambling revenue dropped by 12.3% in Q4 compared to the same period in 2023. The online casino segment suffered the most, with a stunning 18.5% plunge in Q4 revenue, dragging annual gains in this segment down to a measly 2.4%.
This nose-dive coincides with the introduction of new deposit limits tied to affordability checks. Adults are capped at €700 monthly, while the young guns (18-24) are limited to €300. Players unwilling to share their private financial details with licensed operators are jumping ship to the underground market.
Justin Franssen, partner at Franssen Tolboom Lawyers, sums it up bluntly: " Players are bouncing from the legal market the minute they have to spill their personal financial secrets with licensed operators. It's sheer folly to assume those players just stop gambling. The black market is about to explode."
Underground syndicates thrive as political support wanes:
The KSA's data paints a grim picture. By mid-2024, over half of Dutch online gambling revenue was flowing offshore, escaping the regulated market. While the number of active legal gambling accounts climbed to 1.19 million, high-rollers are seeking out unlawful sites to bypass the new limits.
"This decrease is probably due to both the European Football Championship peak in June 2024 and the new rules meant to safeguard players in the online gambling market," the KSA acknowledged, hinting at addicted players now more likely to engage in shady activities. The regulator estimates that half of all gambling losses in the Netherlands now happen outside the legal market.
Gambling continues to be a political taboo, with politicians showing little enthusiasm for loosening restrictions. Franssen puts it plainly: "The government isn't bothered about the commercial impact on the industry and seems to have little empathy towards the sector. Last year, the government collected over a billion in gaming taxes. They'll probably lift a finger only when that number starts to shrink significantly."
taxes and regulatory pressure: A deadly duo:
If losing players to the black market and political apathy weren't enough, Dutch gambling operators now face a two-stage tax hike. The government plans to push the gambling tax from 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025, with another leap to 37.8% coming in 2026. Industry titans warn this could force operators out of the market or close state-owned Holland Casino's online operations.
"The proposed increase to 37.8% gambling tax in 2026 requires drastic decisions that, even after further study, are irresponsible in our opinion," said Holland Casino CEO Petra de Ruiter. "To ensure this, both the appeal of our offer and the continuity of the company are essential. Appeal is crucial to maintain players within the legal offer and to prevent customers from fleeing from physical casinos to online alternatives. To do this, we must be able to invest and innovate. The announced increase in gambling tax makes this nearly impossible."
The lethal cocktail of stricter affordability checks, skyrocketing taxes, and a chillingly hostile political climate has left the Dutch gambling market at a crossroads. Franssen warned, "Currently, there are quite a few businesses in deep trouble, both land-based and online. And there's more trouble on the horizon, unfortunately."
For now, the Dutch government remains unmoved by industry pleas, focusing on player protection and tax revenue, disregarding the potential demise of the regulated market. The question remains: how long can this approach last before the cure becomes worse than the disease?
Join SiGMA’s top 10 news countdown for weekly updates, insights, and exclusive offers.
Latest News
** :Nomura predicts another soft quarter for Resorts World Sentosa::Mindway AI teams up with Hommerson to boost Dutch responsible gaming:Show All**
Online
:Penn Entertainment revamps board::BetMGM Q1 net revenue up 34 percent:Show All**
The Dutch Gambling Authority's data reveals that over half of the Dutch online gambling revenue was flowing offshore by mid-2024, escaping the regulated market. The estimated outlook is grim, as political support for the gambling industry remains scarce, and the government plans to hike gambling taxes from 30.5% to 37.8% within the next two years. This double-edged sword of increased taxes and regulatory pressure is putting significant strain on the industry, potentially leading to the closure of both online and land-based gambling establishments. Industry insiders suggest this could spark a chain reaction, eventually causing the regulated market to collapse.
