Oil prices may experience a bullish surge, but persistent bearish influences could limit good gains.
On the WTI Oil Daily Chart and Two-Hour Chart, dated August 20, 2025, the market has shown a choppy trend, with a bearish day followed by a bullish one. This volatility is partly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent developments.
Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles, exceeding the expected 1.2 million-barrel drop. However, the WTI Oil has broken below a triangle pattern and the 200 and 100-day moving averages at 67.62 and 64.51, respectively.
The Whiting, Indiana, refinery, an important fuel supplier for the Midwest, has been impacted by flooding caused by a severe thunderstorm, potentially reducing crude demand at the refinery. BP, the operator of the refinery, processes 440,000 barrels per day.
The break above the previous swing high on the two-hour timeframe could hint at a change in structure, but the failure of the period-14 RSI to break above the 50 neutral level suggests bearish momentum is still present. Similarly, a break of the previous swing high has occurred on a two-hour timeframe, but the period-14 RSI on the two-hour chart has been rejected at the 50 neutral level, suggesting bearish momentum is still in play.
The 100-day moving average on the two-hour timeframe has been providing strong dynamic resistance this week, and the two-hour timeframe 100-day moving average is purple in colour. The breakdown in WTI Oil price might be due to uncertainties and lack of commitment from traders.
Potential developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to influence oil prices. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has expressed his willingness to meet with President Putin without any preconditions to discuss ways to end the war. However, a quick resolution to the conflict seems unlikely, as reports suggest that any territorial concessions would require a public vote.
On Tuesday, former U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the possibility of U.S. air support as part of a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war and mentioned plans for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Zelenskiy, followed by a three-way summit. Russia has not confirmed its participation in talks with Zelenskiy as of the report.
Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later today, which may cause further volatility in oil prices. Any updates on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal may also impact the market.
