Oil prices climb in anticipation of Trump-Putin summit meeting
Published on August 14, 2025
The international crude oil market is bracing for potential disruptions as the United States considers imposing secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, including major importers like China and Turkey.
According to analysts, the imposition of these tariffs could lead to a significant reduction in Russian oil demand and a price decline for Russian crude as countries seek to avoid US tariffs by shunning Russian oil imports. This shift in trade patterns would increase demand for crude from the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and potentially US exporters, if politics allow.
The resulting market uncertainty and supply chain reshuffling could lead to global oil price volatility and upward pressure. Futures markets have already reacted with an 8% price jump, and analysts caution prices could exceed $120 per barrel if Russian supplies are cut off abruptly.
Moreover, if Russia struggles to find enough buyers apart from China and Turkey, some Russian production may be "shut in," tightening global supply and further boosting crude prices.
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday will likely shed more light on this complex geopolitical and trade situation.
Meanwhile, in domestic news, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels for the week ending August 8, according to the US Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum status report. This moderately bearish report was counterbalanced by stronger imports driving the increase.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), August castor seed contracts were trading at ₹6,561, up 0.35% from the previous day. August metha oil futures were trading at ₹1,007.40, up 2.25% from their previous close of ₹985.20.
September crude oil futures on WTI were at $62.87, while September futures on MCX were trading at ₹5,454. October turmeric (farmer polished) futures were trading at ₹13,400 on NCDEX, down 0.64% from their previous close on MCX.
At 9.56 am on Thursday, October Brent oil futures were at $65.89.
[1] IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 6,80,000 barrels per day this year and 7,00,000 barrels per day in 2026. [2] Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, said there's upside risk for the market if little progress is made in the talks. [3] The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.5 million barrel build the previous day. [4] Imports grew by 958,000 barrels per day week on week.
- The potential disruptions in the international crude oil market due to US tariffs on Russian energy could cause a growth in global oil demand as countries look for alternatives, according to predictions by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
- Analysts are warning of further upward pressure on crude prices if little progress is made in the talks to resolve the trade issues, as per the comments by Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think.
- In addition to the US Energy Information Administration's report of increased US crude oil inventories, imports have also grown significantly, contributing to the increase in oil inventories.
- Given the potential for Russian oil imports to decrease due to US tariffs, it is expected that imports from countries such as those in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and even US exporters could increase to fill the gap.
- In the business world, subscription-based analysis services like those provided by ING Think play a crucial role in helping companies and investors navigate complex geopolitical and trade situations like the current issues surrounding the international crude oil market.
