Nuclear weapon development and the implementation of the "Oрешник" strategy will be pursued by Belarus, according to their recent statements.
In a move that could escalate tensions in the region, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has announced that Russia and Belarus will rehearse planning the use of nuclear weapons during their joint exercises "Zapad-2025" from September 12 to 16. The drills will also include the deployment of the "Oreshnik" rocket system, a nuclear-capable missile system set for delivery to Belarus by late 2025[1][2].
The significance of these exercises lies in their strategic signaling and military posture, especially amid heightened tensions in the region. The Kremlin is using "Zapad-2025" as a form of nuclear saber-rattling to assert its military strength and deter Western powers, particularly ahead of significant diplomatic events like the Alaska summit[2]. The focus on nuclear weapons and banned missile technologies highlights Russia’s intent to pressure NATO and the West strategically.
Through demonstrative nuclear and missile exercises, Russia aims to manipulate Western decision-making—known as reflexive control—by making threats that could drive disproportionate responses beneficial to Russia’s interests[2]. The drills carry concerns about potential escalation not just against Ukraine but possibly against NATO’s eastern flank, especially Poland and Lithuania.
The deployment of the "Oreshnik" missile system—banned under the now-defunct INF Treaty which Russia has violated—signals Russia’s disregard for arms control agreements and underscores its willingness to flaunt such weapons in regional military displays[2]. Belarus has invited OSCE states and NATO countries to observe the exercises, yet the relatively low official troop numbers and dispersed nature of activities resemble past Zapad drills which sometimes masked larger operations, raising suspicions about true scale and intentions[1].
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Alexander Syrskiy, has stated that Ukraine is working on creating its own air defense system and a rocket system as a deterrent against "Oreshnik" rockets. President Vladimir Zelenskyy previously stated that Putin was "brandishing the 'Oreshnik'" to prevent US President Donald Trump from concluding the Russia-Ukraine war.
Khrenin has also repeated Russian narratives about militarization and military activity by the West on Belarus' western and northern borders. He emphasized that nuclear weapons can inflict unacceptable damage on potential enemies and stated that Russia will respond if the Polish military shows any aggression towards Belarus.
This rehearsal serves several purposes: nuclear saber-rattling and deterrence, reflexive control and political signaling, regional power projection and escalation risks, violation and flaunting of arms control norms, and invitation to observers and limited transparency. The heightened Russian-Belarusian military threat posture is designed to intimidate NATO, reinforce Russia’s strategic leverage in arms control and geopolitical disputes, and maintain operational readiness with nuclear-capable systems near NATO’s border[1][2][3].
[1] Reuters. (2022, July 20). Belarus, Russia to rehearse planning use of nuclear weapons, missile drills. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-russia-rehearse-planning-use-nuclear-weapons-missile-drills-2022-07-20/
[2] The Washington Post. (2022, July 20). Russia and Belarus to rehearse nuclear weapons use in upcoming exercises. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-belarus-to-rehearse-nuclear-weapons-use-in-upcoming-exercises/2022/07/20/96451b4c-23d3-11ed-a9e6-613e88513b8a_story.html
[3] The Guardian. (2022, July 20). Belarus and Russia to rehearse planning use of nuclear weapons in upcoming exercises. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/20/belarus-russia-to-rehearse-planning-use-of-nuclear-weapons-in-upcoming-exercises
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