Ukraine's Survival without USA: Germany Steps Up
"Novi German Chancellor instills optimism in us"
The city of Kyiv is buzzing with discussions about Ukraine, its defensive war against Russia, and the Western alliance. Former President Poroschenko seems to have high hopes for Chancellor Merz. Experts argue that the USA remains a crucial partner, but Ukraine needs a backup plan, according to a former diplomat.
As tanks parade over Red Square to celebrate victory against Nazism, experts in Kyiv deliberate on how Ukraine can survive against an aggressor like Russia with less or no aid from the USA. The transatlantic support from NATO under President Trump seems to have left cracks. Ukraine, a region where Russian troops have been present for over a decade, and where a large-scale war has been raging since February 2022, refuses to accept this.
"We're in a tough spot at the front," said Ukraine's former President Petro Poroschenko on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum. There's a shortage of personnel, technology, shells, and weapons, especially air defense. "Our hopes rest on the new German Chancellor," said Poroschenko. "I had a chance to chat with him just a few days ago, and I was quite impressed by his determination to bolster and demonstrate Germany's leadership role across Europe." It's clear that it's not just about supporting Ukraine, but an investment in European security.
Politics have become dicey since Trump took office. Ukraine, a country where Russian forces have been encroaching for years, wants no part of this division. This divide is also the focal point of the opening speech of the event, where experts from the Western world, including Germany, gather. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appealed to the allies: "We did it 80 years ago, and we'll restore the world order again."
Arms for Military Edge
Yatsenyuk drew a historical comparison. When the free world wanted to strike a deal with Hitler in 1938, it was disastrous. "Hitler launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin operates by different rules than Trump. He warned China and the Global South: "Those who claim neutrality or present themselves as mediators must realize that you can't stand idle in this war, you must support one side, or you're complicit."
Ex-Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker took the stage and was asked about the peace efforts of the White House. "Putin will never accept peace," Volker said bluntly. "We need military deterrence." Trump's administration puts a lot of pressure on Ukraine but refrains from demanding much from Russia, Volker explains. To push Russia towards a ceasefire, the pressure on Moscow must increase significantly. Trump misunderstands Putin's motivations, according to Volker, because he's driven by deals.
Politics A Ceasefire on the Horizon? Merz believes a ceasefire within the next few days could be possible. The most pressing question is which weapons could swing the war – without U.S. aid, which is about to expire. Drones are essential, says Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of a battalion for unmanned systems. "Unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary tools. They are decisive on the battlefield." According to Shutenko, Ukraine needs more drones to win: "We need a scalable drone production and a steady supply of drones to Ukrainian military and combat units."
His opinions align with another roundtable discussing innovations on the battlefield - or rather, agreeing on them: Military technology of the future is currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovation leaps are driven by the "will to survive," says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. Within a few months or even weeks, this happens. Communications between engineers and units on the battlefield occur continuously. Shymkow emphasizes that only the most advanced technologies can protect soldiers' lives. This also benefits the armaments industries of friendly nations, such as Germany, Britain, or Portugal.
Drones Aren't Enough
However, Ukraine cannot win the war alone with drones, says Commander Shutenko. Skilled personnel for infantry and attack units are important, but even more so is continuous international support. Diplomatically, with sanctions, with air forces and artillery. "We need all this because we are fighting one of the most powerful armies in the world here in Ukraine. If we prevail, we will inflict such losses on the Russians that they'll beg for negotiations and peace."
Negotiations, so far, haven't been going well for Ukraine. In an interview on the sidelines of the forum, Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, explains that the previous efforts of the US government have been misguided. "They're trying to create peace without considering the history and causes of the war. They treat both sides of the war equally and ignore the fact that Russia is the aggressor and the aggression is calculated and planned." Concessions to Russia will not solve the situation. "That only harms Ukraine more than it helps."
Politics War Crimes Tribunal: Ukraine's allies have agreed on a war crimes tribunal for Putin. According to Kazdobina, other European countries are already at war. "We know that according to the Russian military doctrine, hybrid methods for weakening potential victims come first." Then comes the confrontation on the battlefield. "Even if there seems to be peace still and they are only exposed to hybrid attacks, they are already at war."
Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, believes it's worth involving the US. But: "It's important that Kyiv has a Plan B."
- The former diplomat suggests that Ukraine needs a backup plan as the transatlantic support from NATO under President Trump appears to have left cracks, due to a potential lack of USA support.
- Yatsenyuk, Ukraine's former Prime Minister, appeals to the allies, stating that Ukraine did its part in restoring world order 80 years ago and will do so again, possibly referring to the need for a united Western alliance to counter Russia's aggression.
- Ex-Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker explains that to push Russia towards a ceasefire, the pressure on Moscow must increase significantly, and military deterrence is necessary, implying the need for Western political support in the form of sanctions, air forces, and artillery.
- Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, criticizes the previous efforts of the US government, arguing that they treat both sides of the war equally and ignore the fact that Russia is the aggressor, suggesting a need for more decisive political action from the USA and its allies.
