North Korea's Embrace of Nuclear Weapons: A Journey
South Korea is grappling with the possibility of expanding its nuclear capabilities, a move driven primarily by North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile programs and increasing doubts about the reliability of U.S. extended deterrence.
Under a bilateral agreement with the U.S., South Korea is contractually bound not to enrich uranium beyond 20 percent or reprocess plutonium without consent. However, equalizing South Korea's nuclear capabilities would not violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and would allow Seoul to maintain an additional deterrent in times of waning American security guarantees.
The discussions in South Korea about nuclear armament are complex and far from a reality. The feasibility of implementing this long-held autonomy wish of the Korean left is uncertain. Politically, there has been open debate about whether South Korea should acquire its own nuclear weapons, with President Yoon Suk-yeol suggesting a conditional openness to this if North Korean threats worsen but later reaffirming South Korea's non-nuclear weapon status under the NPT and confidence in U.S. guarantees.
In Japan, while not explicitly detailed in the search results, neutrality and pacifist principles have traditionally discouraged nuclear armament. However, growing regional threats from North Korea and China are prompting increased security discussions. Japan remains highly dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella but faces similar concerns about potential waning American guarantees.
Any move by South Korea—or Japan—to develop nuclear weapons would have profound implications. It could destabilize the regional non-proliferation regime, provoke an arms race in Northeast Asia, and complicate diplomatic dynamics involving China, Russia, and the U.S. These moves would be closely monitored and could lead to intensified diplomatic and security tensions.
As an immediate concrete measure, South Korea is modernizing its joint U.S.-ROK command and control systems to enhance deterrence credibility, expected to be upgraded by 2029. This indicates reliance on alliance mechanisms despite uncertainty.
The question of independent nuclear armament is back on the table in both Asia and Europe due to uncertainty in American security guarantees. Necessary alternatives include strengthening regional cooperation, such as between South Korea and Japan, and with Australia, and bolstering international order in conjunction with Europeans.
The majority of South Koreans support the option of nuclear armament, but the price of international isolation (potential sanctions from the USA and EU, and potential damage to the defense alliance with the USA) may deter many from supporting it. Previous talks during Trump's term failed due to U.S. demands for full denuclearization and expected congressional resistance.
The newly elected South Korean president, Lee, has promised to strive for a higher autonomy of the Korean military from the USA. Operational control (OPCON) over Korean troops still lies with the American commander in Korea. The risk of Russia or North Korea attempting to prevent South Korea from developing a bomb is a potential concern.
Trump's desire for personal recognition may now lead him to negotiate with North Korea, given the unrealistic prospects of peace in Ukraine and the difficulty of reaching a deal with Iran. The South Korean government has recently linked the topic of military autonomy to the question of more nuclear independence, such as potentially involving uranium for the construction of nuclear submarines.
In conclusion, the nuclear dilemma is recognised: foreign nuclear weapons do not provide the same level of security as one's own. South Korea is actively considering more autonomous nuclear-related capabilities, and the debate about nuclear armament is a contentious issue, largely due to North Korean threats and doubts about U.S. guarantees. Japan, while concerned, has not publicly moved towards nuclear armament but monitors the strategic environment closely. Both nations face complex international repercussions if they alter their non-nuclear postures.
- The debate in South Korea about acquiring nuclear weapons is influenced by doubts about U.S. guarantees and the belief that a nuclear arsenal could serve as an additional deterrent, especially in times of wavering American security guarantees.
- In light of the uncertainty regarding American security guarantees, South Korea is contemplating more autonomous nuclear-related capabilities, sensing that foreign nuclear weapons may not offer the same level of security as indigenous ones.
