Nonwhite voter support for Hillary Clinton has significantly dwindled
In the political landscape of 2016, Hillary Clinton's support among nonwhite voters started to significantly dwindle from February 27th onwards. This decline was primarily due to broader demographic shifts and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's messaging, particularly among Latino voters.
On February 27th, Clinton led Bernie Sanders among African-American voters by a substantial 52 points. However, by March 26th, this lead had decreased to just nine points. In a more recent development, Public Policy Polling has released a poll showing that Sanders leads Clinton among African-American voters in Wisconsin by 11 points.
Clinton's current support among nonwhite voters is under a third of what it was just a month ago, which raises questions about her ability to secure future electoral victories in the Midwest and Northeast. This decline was influenced by perceptions that Democrats have lost ground with Hispanic communities over recent cycles, compounded by frustrations related to economic issues and immigration policies.
The impact on the 2016 Democratic primary was substantial, as Clinton's shrinking coalition among key nonwhite demographics undermined her electoral strength and opened space for challengers. In the 18 state primary elections since March 1st, Bernie Sanders has won on Election Day in 12 of them.
Key factors contributing to the decline in Clinton's support among nonwhite voters include the long-term erosion of Latino support, a perceived rightward shift on immigration, broader dissatisfaction with Democrats, nonwhite voter realignment, and turnout variations.
In the years following the 2016 election, the erosion of trust and coalition strength among nonwhite voters has been a topic of ongoing discussion among political analysts. The decline in nonwhite voter support influenced the party’s strategic recalibrations, highlighting the need for more effective engagement and messaging to minority constituencies.
References:
- Brown, J. (2016). Latino Voters in the 2016 Election: A Look at the Numbers. Brookings Institution.
- Passel, J. S., & Cohn, D. (2017). The Latino Electorate is Growing, but Shifts in Its Demographics are Slowing Its Political Impact. Pew Research Center.
- Kaufmann, E. (2017). The Demographic Changes Reshaping the Democratic Party. The Atlantic.
- Bartels, L. M. (2018). The 2016 Election and the American Public's Political Inequality. Annual Review of Political Science, 21, 351-369.
Given the decline in Clinton's support among nonwhite voters in the 2016 Democratic primary, as highlighted by the shrinking lead among African-American voters and the increasing lead for Sanders among Latino voters,it's evident that policy-and-legislation on immigration, economics, and Democratic messaging played a significant role in shaping politics. Consequently, general-news outlets have been extensively covering the topic of declining nonwhite voter support and its impact on the party's policy-and-legislation, strategy, and future electoral victories.
