NOAA Declares Weak La Niña, Bringing Mixed Temperature Impacts
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared a La Niña event, with water temperature anomalies below -0.5°C in the central and eastern Pacific since September. This follows the end of the last La Niña in 2023, marking a return to El Niño or La Niña conditions. The current event is expected to be weak, with mixed impacts on global temperatures.
NOAA's outlook predicts a weak La Niña, with anomalies ranging from -0.5°C to -1.0°C until early spring 2026. Meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will release an updated ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on November 13, 2022, providing a detailed analysis of La Niña conditions and their expected strength and duration.
Historically, La Niña events have lasted around 9 to 12 months. During significant La Niña events, severe weather reports drop across Florida and the Gulf Coast due to jet stream displacement. However, this weak La Niña may have mixed impacts on temperature, with about half of events trending warmer and the other half cooler than typical. The southern U.S. can expect drier and warmer weather, while the northern U.S. may see cooler, wetter conditions.
The current La Niña event is expected to be weak, with NOAA predicting water temperature anomalies in the -0.5°C to -1.0°C range until early spring 2026. While severe weather has been above normal, more typical of La Niña than neutral conditions, the impacts on temperature and weather patterns may vary. NOAA will provide further updates on the event's development and impact in their ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on November 13, 2022.
