The Rise of Reform UK: Challenging England's Two-Party System, Thanks to Nigel Farage
Rise of Farage: Fracturing of the Two-Party British Political Landscape - Nigel Farage's proposed two-party system is faltering
Get ready for some exciting politics! The recent local elections in England have shaken things up, with Nigel Farage's Reform UK making a significant impact on both the Conservative Tories and Labour Party.
Former Brexit crusader, Nigel Farage, might not be on track to become the next British prime minister, but his right-wing populist party, Reform UK, is certainly shaking things up. In the last round of local elections, Reform not only gave the Conservatives a run for their money but also hurt Labour's chances.
A Double Loss for the Major Parties
The Conservatives and Labour both suffered heavy losses. Alongside Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens also saw gains. According to many pundits, this has seriously shaken up the UK's traditional two-party system, with Farage already declaring it "dead."
Narrow Victories for Reform UK
Elections took place for several local councils, regional mayors, and a by-election for a seat in the British Parliament. Last year, Labour won the Runcorn and Helsby seat with a margin of over 14,000 votes. This time, Farage's candidate won by a mere six votes.
In Greater Lincolnshire, Reform's candidate, Andrea Jenkyns, was elected regional mayor with a clear lead over the Conservatives. Reform gained hundreds of seats in local councils, and in some, they now hold the balance of power.
"It was a great night for us," Farage told the British news agency PA, proclaiming his party as the country's main opposition. Can ex-prime minister Boris Johnson return as the Tories' savior?
Under Johnson, the Conservatives pulled off a landslide in the same districts during the 2021 local elections. For years, the Tories managed to keep Farage at bay, with his various party incarnations like UKIP, the Brexit Party, and now Reform UK challenging them from the right. Issues such as EU withdrawal, migrant boats, and fighting "woke" ideology - whatever Farage focused on, the Tories were quick to adopt his views.
However, the gap has narrowed significantly. Reminiscent of the German AfD, Farage's party has seen a significant boost in polls after the latest parliamentary election. With an average of 25 percent in recent polls, Reform UK is ahead of both Labour (23 percent) and the Tories (21 percent). Also, the current Conservative party leader, Kemi Badenoch, is viewed as weak.
If a parliamentary election were held now, estimates suggest that Reform UK could become the largest faction in the British Parliament - a massive shock, given the UK's first-past-the-post system, which traditionally ensures that either the Conservatives or Labour secure a clear majority, effectively creating a two-party system, albeit an unofficial one.
Could a pact between the Tories and Reform UK be in the works?
A Nightmare Scenario for the Tories is that this system could be permanently disrupted. Unlike Labour, the Conservatives, who have shifted far to the right, have no coalition partner option other than Reform. Thus, talks are already underway within the Conservatives about whether it would be better to strike a deal with Farage before it's too late. Badenoch has ruled out this option so far, and Farage has also rejected it. Labour is deemed "paranoid" about Reform.
The Paranoia is Real, according to LSE politics professor Sara Hobolt. The background to this is that many traditional Labour voters from the working class, especially in the north of the country, voted for EU exit in the Brexit referendum. Farage's messages are likely to resonate with them.
This concern is not unfounded, as shown by the latest election results. After the defeat in Runcorn and Helsby, Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that he understood. However, he seems not to have found an effective remedy against the success of Reform UK yet.
- Nigel Farage
- England
- Local Elections
- Brexit
- Boris Johnson
- Keir Starmer
- General Election
- London
- EU
- United Kingdom
- Liverpool
Insights:- Historic Third-Party Performance: The 2025 local election results marked the first time in modern history that a third party, Reform UK, achieved a 32% national estimate vote share, surpassing both Labour (19%) and the Conservatives (18%).- Narrow Victories: Reform's victory in Runnymede with a six-vote majority was one of the closest in UK history, highlighting its ability to challenge incumbents even in traditionally safe seats.- 2029 General Election Considerations: The Conservative-Labour vote collapse (combined 37% vs. Reform's 32%) suggests a growing dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and a potential increase in multi-party coalitions or policy realignments by 2029.- Regional Influence: Reform's gains in Greater Lincolnshire, Hull, and East Yorkshire suggest a potential geographic base, similar to the Brexit Party's impact in 2019.- Structural Challenges: The FPTP system, which historically disadvantages smaller parties, could pressure reforms to proportional representation. Additionally, tactical voting dynamics could lead to vote-splitting between Labour and Conservatives in constituencies with strong Reform support.- Fundamental Shift: The local election results signal a fundamental shift in UK politics with Reform positioned as a credible alternative to traditional parties, a trend likely to intensify ahead of 2029.
- Nigel Farage's Reform UK, in the recent local elections in England, caused significant turbulence to both the Conservative Tories and Labour Party, presenting a challenge to the traditional two-party system of the United Kingdom.
- Despite not being on course to become the next British prime minister, Farage's right-wing populist party, Reform UK, was a major factor in the heavy losses suffered by the Conservatives and Labour, with Farage declaring the traditional two-party system dead.
- In several local council elections, regional mayoral races, and a by-election for a seat in the British Parliament, Reform UK managed narrow victories, even in traditionally safe seats like Runcorn, where their candidate won by a mere six votes.
- Reform UK also saw success in Greater Lincolnshire, with Andrea Jenkyns being elected regional mayor, outranking the Conservatives, and gaining hundreds of seats in local councils, in some cases even holding the balance of power.
- If a parliamentary election were held now, estimates suggest that Reform UK could become the largest faction in the British Parliament, a significant shock given the UK's first-past-the-post system and its historical maintenance of a two-party system, albeit unofficial.
- The UK's Conservative party, led by Kemi Badenoch, may face a difficult future with Reform UK's growing popularity, as the party averages 25 percent in recent polls, surpassing both Labour (23 percent) and the Conservatives (21 percent).
