NHL Forecast: Skilled Guesswork from Experts on May 5th

Hockey Faceoff: Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs## NHL Predictions - Expert Picks on Monday, May 5

Florida Panthers (-125, 5.5) at Toronto Maple Leafs

Series Price: Florida Panthers (-184) Toronto Maple Leafs +150Game One8 p.m. ET

After winning the Atlantic Division and securing home ice advantage, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves as small underdogs for Game One tonight against the Florida Panthers and a heavy underdog for the best-of-seven series versus the defending Stanley Cup champions.

The Maple Leafs had a rough go against the Ottawa Senators in the first round, almost breaking a 20-year streak of failing to win a playoff round. Their last playoff series win came in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning, only to lose to the Florida Panthers in round two.

There are eight players on the Maple Leafs roster and ten players on the Florida roster set to square off when the puck drops for Game One. In addition, the Maple Leafs' Oliver Ekman-Larsson, goalie Anthony Stolarz, and forward Steven Lorentz were all members of Florida's Stanley Cup-winning team from last season. The Panthers enter this series after dispatching the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, restricting Tampa to just 12 goals. Miami will start without defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who is serving the final game of a two-game suspension for his illegal hit on Tampa's Brandon Hagel.

This will mark the fifth time former Bruin and now Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand will face the Maple Leafs in the playoffs. Marchand boasts a perfect 4-0 record in the postseason against Toronto and has 29 points (sixth most) against the Leafs. Carter Verhaeghe, originally drafted by Toronto, scored three goals, including a game winner when these two teams met in the 2022-23 playoffs. Tkachuk had five assists in that series. He is one of five Florida players who had five points in their opening-round series against the Lightning. Sam Reinhart led the way with six points (two goals, four assists). Sam Bennett and Tkachuk led the team in goals with three.

Toronto's core four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander) led the team in scoring in round one. William Nylander tops the list with nine points (three goals, six assists). The Maple Leafs are deeper from top to bottom and have become a more composed team under new head coach Craig Berube, compared to previous years in the playoffs.

For me, the big question hovering over the Maple Leafs is whether Matthews and Marner can elevate their game against a Florida team that will target the Leafs every time they touch the puck. One player I have zero concerns about is rookie Matthew Knies, who plays alongside Matthews and Marner on the top line as well as the number one power play. I've tipped Knies to score three or more goals in round one against Ottawa, and he delivered with three goals. The young Toronto forward is built for playoff hockey, and I will target him to score an anytime goal each game, as well as tally at least three goals in the series. Another interesting bet for Game One is the 'baby bump goal' for Toronto's Mitch Marner, as his wife recently gave birth over the weekend.

Game One Predictions:

Florida Panthers in regulation +120 - 1 unit
Mitch Marner anytime goal +250 - .10 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal +320 - .10 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal +300 - .10 units
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal +275 - .10 units

Series Predictions:

Matthew Knies to score 2 or more goals +110 - .25 units
Matthew Knies to score 3 or more goals +350 - .10 units
Sam Bennett to score 2 or more goals (-135) - .25 units
Sam Bennett to score 3 or more goals +220 - .25 units
Carter Verhaeghe to score 2 or more goals (-115) - .25 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 games (+110) - .50 units

I will delve into each series in depth on their opening night. For now, here's a swift look at the other three Stanley Cup Playoff series set to kick off:

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

Series Price: Carolina Hurricanes (-165) Washington Capitals (+135)

Series starts: Tuesday, May 6

These two teams split their four-game series in the regular season, with each team defending their home ice. Both teams will face a stiffer challenge from their opening-round opponents this time. The Capitals wore down a smaller Montreal Canadiens squad. The Hurricanes were simply too much for a New Jersey team missing their best forward in Jack Hughes and had three of their top six defenseman who couldn't finish the series due to injury. Washington takes the checkmark in goal with Logan Thompson edging out both Freddie Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. I expect a long series, and I will target it to go six and seven games and make a minor profit.

Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights

Series Price: Edmonton Oilers (-110) Vegas Golden Knights (-110)Series starts: Tuesday, May 6

Both these teams pushed hard in the first round and made the necessary adjustments to advance to the second round. My concern with the Oilers is their unstable goaltending, with Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner in net. With their best defenseman, Mattias Ekholm, likely still out for this series, it may be too much to overcome. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy made a significant adjustment in the series against Minnesota by combining Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and William Karlsson together. This trio not only provides offense but has the skillset to shut down the opposition's best forwards. They will take on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who were practicing together alongside Corey Perry, forming Edmonton's top line.

I lean toward Vegas on the series spread at -1.5 games at +196.

Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets

Series Price: Dallas Stars (-166) Winnipeg Jets (-140)Series starts: Wednesday, May 7

It seems like the Dallas Stars will receive a significant boost for this series with Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson expected to return. The Jets, on the other hand, could still be without Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey. Scheifele missed the last two games of the opening round, while Morrissey was injured in the first period of Game Seven against St. Louis. The Stars have a history of struggling in opening-round games, but with Jets potentially missing essential players, that might change. I like Dallas to win the series, and it goes no more than six games. I also like the Stars to score at least three goals per game, and I will target their team total when I can secure a decent price on Over 2.5 goals.

I will wager on the series to go five games (+260) and six games (+195).

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Insights:

Florida Panthers are heavy favorites to win the series at -184 according to ESPN BET, while Toronto Maple Leafs have odds of +150[1].
Florida defeated Toronto in the only inter-series game during regular season play[1].
Key players to watch out for in this series include Florida's Tkachuk, Barkov, and Bobrovsky, and Toronto's Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Knies[1].
Eight players in Florida's roster and ten players in Toronto's roster played together in last season's Stanley Cup series[1].

[1] Retrieved from: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/40759361/2025-stanley-cup-playoffs-round-2-florida-panthers-toronto-maple-leafs-series-predictions-expert-picks[2] Retrieved from: https://www.nhl.com/news/hurricanes-capitals-first-round-preview-nhl/c-322043080[3] Retrieved from: https://www.thehockeywriters.com/edmonton-oilers-vs-vegas-golden-knights-stanley-cup-series-preview-4-keys-to-watch/[4] Retrieved from: https://www.thehockeywriters.com/dean-bombulie-toronto-maple-leafs-have-everything-to-gain-in-series-against-florida-panthers/[5] Retrieved from: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/stanley-cup-playoffs-2025-florida-panthers-toronto-maple-leafs-preview/[6] Retrieved from: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/playoffs/2025-stanley-cup-playoffs-nhl-picks-predictions-betting-odds-may-2/

The Florida Panthers, who are the favorites to win the series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, have odds of -184 according to expert picks made for the NHL Playoffs.
Expert picks suggest that the Florida Panthers may have an edge in the series due to their performance during the regular season, where they defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs in their only inter-series game.
Key players to watch out for in this series include Florida's Tkachuk, Barkov, and Bobrovsky, and Toronto's Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Knies.
Eight players in Florida's roster and ten players in Toronto's roster played together in last season's Stanley Cup series.

NHL Forecast: Skilled Guesswork from Experts on May 5th