NHL Forecast: Seasoned Guesswork on May 5th, Based on Professionals' Opinions

🏒 NHL Showdown - Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

Florida Panthers (-125, 5.5) vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Series Price: Florida Panthers (-184) Toronto Maple Leafs +150Game One8 p.m. ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs, division champions, find themselves slight underdogs for Game One against the Florida Panthers, last year's Stanley Cup champions. The Maple Leafs narrowly edged past Ottawa Senators in round one, marking only the second time in the last two decades they've advanced from a playoff series [1]. Their last series win happened in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs when they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, but subsequently lost to the Florida Panthers in the second round.

Eight players from both teams will rekindle their rivalry when the puck drops tonight. Three Maple Leafs players - goalie Anthony Stolarz, and forwards Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Steven Lorentz - were part of the Florida's championship team last year [1]. The Panthers have eliminated Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, conceding just 12 goals [1]. Florida Panthers will start the series without defenseman Aaron Ekblad who is serving the final game of a two-game suspension for his hit on Tampa Bay's Brandon Hagel [1].

Veteran Panthers forward Brad Marchand will face the Maple Leafs for the fifth time in the playoffs. He holds a perfect 4-0 record against Toronto, having scored 29 points in the playoffs against the Leafs - the sixth-most points by any player [1]. Carter Verhaeghe, previously drafted by Toronto, scored three goals, including a game-winner, when these two teams met in 2022-23 playoffs [1]. Matthew Tkachuk contributed five assists in that series [1]. Tkachuk is one of five Panthers players who had five points in their first-round series against the Lightning, with Sam Reinhart leading the way with six points [1].

Toronto's core four - Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander - were the team's top four scoring leaders in round one, with Nylander leading the way with nine points [1]. New head coach Craig Berube has led the team to becoming a more composed unit compared to their previous playoff performances [1].

One Maple Leafs player who impresses is Matthew Knies, a rugged Toronto forward who has found his stride in playoff hockey. Knies scored three goals in round one, matching a bet I made on him to do so [1]. I'll back him to score at least one goal per game and target a three-goal series tally for him [1]. An interesting bet to consider is also the "baby bump goal" for Mitch Marner, given his wife recently delivered a baby [1].

Game One Predictions:

Florida Panthers in regulation +120 (-1 unit)
Mitch Marner anytime goal +260 (-0.1 units)
Matthew Knies anytime goal +320 (-0.1 units)
Sam Bennett anytime goal +300 (-0.1 units)
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal +280 (-0.1 units)

Series Predictions:

Matthew Knies to score 2 or more goals +100 (-0.25 units)
Matthew Knies to score 3 or more goals +340 (-0.1 units)
Sam Bennett to score 2 or more goals (-135) -0.25 units
Sam Bennett to score 3 or more goals +240 (-0.25 units)
Carter Verhaeghe to score 2 or more goals (-115) -0.25 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 games (+110) -0.50 units

[1] Enrichment data sourced from the author's article.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, the division champions, are likely to face the Florida Panthers, last year's Stanley Cup champions, as underdogs in ice hockey’s NHL.
Despite their win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Maple Leafs' odds of winning Game One seemingly limit their chances.
There's a possible underdog storyline in tonight's hockey game, as three Maple Leafs players were part of Florida's championship team last year.
Experts analyze the odds of the Florida Panthers series win, with experts picking the Panthers (-184) to claim the series.
Within the series, it's likely that Matthew Knies, a Maple Leafs player, could record 2 or more goals, and might achieve this in any given game.