NFL Week 4 Predictions: High-Value Players from FanDuel and DraftKings' Selection
Weekly DFS Football Picks: Top Players to Boost Your Lineup
Welcome back, fantasy football fanatics! Here's a rundown of my favorite players for Week 4 on FanDuel and DraftKings, focusing on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, and D/ST. Remember to balance these high-end picks with budget-friendly "value plays" and always consider the different strategies for Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) versus Cash contests. Let's dive in!
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady (NE, FD: $9,500, DK: $8,000) vs. Carolina Panthers
Tom Brady has been scorching hot, completing 74.3% of his passes for 825 yards and 8 TDs over the past two weeks. The Patriots have the highest implied point total of the weekend (28.8), which bodes well for Brady and your team's success. Even though the spread is -9, keep in mind that the Pats defense has given up the most points in the NFL with 95 so far.
Russell Wilson (SEA, FD: $7,900, DK: $7,300) vs. Indianapolis Colts
I took a pass on Wilson last weekend, and it ended up costing me. But this week, I'm jumping back on board. Facing a porous Colts defense that's allowed the third-most passing yards (892) and eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, Wilson is primed to make amends for his shortcomings. Seattle's offensive line remains shaky, but that shouldn't matter against an Indy defense that's only managed six sacks in three games. Wilson's home performance in 2016 was impressive, averaging 272 passing yards and an excellent 13:3 TD:INT ratio.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, FD: $8,500, DK: $8,200) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Zeke bounced back against the Cardinals after his worst career game with just eight yards rushing, and now he welcomes the Rams' defense to Dallas. Los Angeles has allowed the second-most rushing yards, the most touchdowns, and the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Elliott has average 5.0 yards per carry and 106 rushing yards per game at home in his career, accumulating eight touchdowns in nine games in Dallas. With this setup, Elliott should have a feast once again this Sunday.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Green (CIN, FD: $8,000, DK: $8,600) at Cleveland Browns
Green silenced his detractors with a 10 catch, 111-yard, 1 TD performance last weekend against the Packers. In two of his last three matchups against Cleveland, Green has recorded over 125 yards and a touchdown. With Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, and others already torching the Browns' secondary, Green should have no problem racking up catches and yards this weekend.
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG, FD: $9,100, DK: $8,900) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay couldn't hold Case Keenum and the Vikings' passing game in check last week, and now they're faced with Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham had a great game against the Eagles, catching 9 of 13 targets for 79 yards and 2 TDs. The Bucs have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, so Beckham should continue his strong performance against them this weekend.
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, FD: $7,300, DK: $6,400) vs. Tennessee Titans
Even though Hopkins has had quiet starts to the season, he's still an excellent choice for this week's matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and Hopkins has seen plenty of targets so far this season with 45 (more than double the next closest player). He's a favorite target for Deshaun Watson, and Hopkins has had great success against the Titans, averaging 102 receiving yards in their last four matchups.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC, FD: $7,400, DK: $6,000) vs. Washington Redskins (MNF)
With an implied point total of 29.5, the Chiefs should be in a position to put up some serious points against the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Washington has allowed a whopping 250 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, the most in the league, so Kelce is primed for a productive night.
Jimmy Graham (SEA, FD: $6,200, DK: $4,900) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Graham had a quiet start to the season but caught 7 of 11 targets for 72 yards in Week 3. With questions surrounding Doug Baldwin's availability, Graham could see even more targets, making him a solid choice against the Colts, who have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Defenses
Jacksonville Jaguars (FD: $5,200, DK: $3,600) at New York Jets
Jacksonville's defense currently leads the NFL with 13 sacks, is second in turnovers forced, and has given up the fourth-fewest points per game. While the Jets haven't been as bad as some predicted, they still struggle to move the ball offensively. The Jaguars are a strong choice to disrupt Josh McCown and force some mistakes while piling up some sacks in the process.
As always, remember to follow these strategies and balance your lineups to maximize your chances of winning in both GPP and Cash contests. Good luck with your Week 4 DFS picks!
Enrichment Data:
Weekly DFS football picks require a strategic approach that takes into account different playing styles for Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments and Cash contests like 50/50s or head-to-head matchups. Here are some top strategies for each format:
Top Strategies for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) Contests
- Aim for High-Upside, High-Risk Players: GPPs reward top-heavy payouts, so focusing on players with high ceilings—those who can score significantly more than their average—is key, even if they carry more risk. These players can drastically differentiate your lineup from the field and offer massive point upside if they perform well.
- Use Contrarian or Left-Field Picks: Popular players like Patrick Mahomes might be safe choices, but widely selected stars reduce lineup uniqueness. Selecting less popular players or stacking combinations from the same team (e.g., QB-WR combinations) can give you leverage if those players outperform expectations because fewer opponents will have those lineups.
- Stacking Players from the Same Team: Combining players like a quarterback and a wide receiver from the same NFL team leverages the correlation of their performances. When one scores big, the other is likely to as well, which can exponentially increase your total points.
- Embrace Variance and Swing for the Fences: Since you only need a top finish, not a safe middle ground, taking calculated risks on boom-or-bust players is appropriate. This approach is fundamentally different from cash games where consistency matters more.
- Consider Overlay Situations: GPP contests with guaranteed prize pools that exceed the total entry fees create "overlay," a scenario where the expected value is higher. Take advantage of these overlays by entering more lineups or taking more risks to capitalize on increased expected returns.
Top Strategies for Cash Contests (50/50s, Head-to-Head, Multipliers)
- Focus on High Floor, Low Risk Players: Unlike GPPs, cash games reward consistent, solid scoring rather than occasional explosive performances. Prioritize players who reliably produce points and minimize boom-or-bust picks.
- Build Balanced Lineups: Aim for lineups that are projected to outscore at least half of the field rather than achieving the highest possible score. Filling your roster with safe players who provide steady points across all positions is a good strategy.
- Avoid Excessive Stacking: While stacking can provide upside, it introduces correlation risk. If a team struggles, your entire lineup suffers. Cash games reward diversification and risk reduction more than the upside stacking provides.
- Play the Odds for Payout Thresholds: In 50/50s, you only need to be in the top half to cash, and in multipliers, a smaller percentage wins with bigger payouts. Selecting players who have consistent usage and a predictable workload can be more valuable than high variance picks.
- Understand Payout Structures and Fields: Cash games typically have flatter payout structures where many winners receive similar returns. This contrasts with GPPs' winner-take-most style. Construct your lineups accordingly to aim for beating the median rather than being the best.
These strategies demonstrate the fundamental difference in objectives between GPPs—maximizing upside to win big—and cash games—minimizing risk to secure consistent, smaller wins. Applying tailored approaches to your Week 4 NFL DFS picks will improve your chances according to your contest type.
- Tom Brady, despite the spread being -9, could be a valuable addition to your lineup as he has been performing exceptionally with 8 TDs in the past two weeks.
- Russell Wilson, who underperformed last weekend, has the opportunity to make amends this week against the Colts, who have allowed the third-most passing yards and eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
- Ezekiel Elliott, who had a subpar game against the Cardinals, is facing the Rams' defense, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards, the most touchdowns, and the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season.
- Travis Kelce, with the Chiefs having the highest implied point total of the weekend, could be a favorite target for Deshaun Watson against a Redskins defense that has given up the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, making Kelce a prime choice for Monday Night Football.
