NFL Playoffs Division Round Bets Against the Spread - Preliminary Line Opportunities
In the upcoming Divisional Round playoffs of the NFL, home teams are favored in four out of six games. Notably, the South Division champions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC and Houston Texans in the AFC, are set as home underdogs. Additionally, the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills are given more than a touchdown as the home favorites in their respective matches.
If betting on the spread for these playoff games is inspired by Wild Card Weekend results, then lucky home teams dominated last week's six postseason contests, going 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread (ATS). However, the favorite teams didn't fare as well, with a 2-4 ATS record, including just a single away underdog victory—the Green Bay Packers.
In this week's four games, Green Bay, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Buffalo are home favorites, with San Francisco and Baltimore having more than a touchdown advantage. A 6.5-point home pick over Tampa Bay, Detroit, isn't far behind that number. On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills are the only home favorites with a spread under a field goal, at 2.5 points over Kansas City. Both the Bills and Lions have seen their spreads grow in their favor since the opening lines dropped, while the numbers have shortened for both the Ravens and 49ers.
The top early bets in the NFL Divisional Round playoffs ATS picks include wagers on the Lions, Packers, and Bills, according to our picks shown in the table below.
Divisional Round NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked || ----------- | ------ | --- | ------------ || Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions | DET-6.5 | DET | 1 || Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers | SF-9.5 | GB | 1 || Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills | BUF-2.5 | BUF | 1 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Our top NFL ATS picks this week are featured in the table above with picks on the Lions, Packers, and Bills.
DET-6.5
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DET
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1
NFL ATS Picks 1: Lions Outlast Bucs
The Detroit Lions won their last playoff game in 1957, also their most recent NFL title. Should they beat Tampa Bay, the Lions may find their playoff fortunes changing in the Motor City.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
: #TBvsDET – Sunday 3pm ET on NBC: Stream on #NFLPlus @NFL
SF-9.5
Despite Tampa Bay's strong defensive performance in their Wild Card Weekend win over the Eagles, their offensive output may struggle against a strong Detroit offensive line protecting QB Jared Goff. The Bucs' QB Baker Mayfield might find it difficult to match Detroit's points output with his offensive unit. In Week 6, Detroit won 20-6 against Tampa Bay.
GB
NFL ATS Picks: Detroit Lions -6.5 (-110), 1 unit
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NFL ATS Picks 2: Packers Surge Past 49ers
The 49ers are coming off a bye week after securing the NFC's top seed. San Francisco rested many players during the Week 18 regular-season finale against the Rams. They must now step up against a Green Bay team that has been dominating opponents.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
The Packers have a strong recent record against the spread, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Meanwhile, the 49ers are struggling with a 0-5 ATS record in their last five home games. Bet on Green Bay to cover.
BUF-2.5
NFL ATS Picks: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-110), 1 unit
BUF
NFL ATS Picks 3: Bills Sweep Chiefs
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Despite writing off the Bills when they were 6-6, they've won six consecutive games since then. Going 4-2 ATS during their winning streak, one of those six victories was a 20-17 win against Kansas City.
: #KCvsBUF – Sunday 6:30pm ET on CBS: Stream on #NFLPlus @NFL
The Bills have faced Kansas City twice in recent playoffs, but this year, they are the team on a roll heading into their playoff clash.
NFL ATS Picks: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-120), 1 unit
- NFL ATS record: 2-1
NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks
- Ravens (-9) vs Texans: Despite Baltimore resting many starters during a Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh, and the Ravens having a solid ATS record this season, the large spread might be challenging for the Ravens at home. Meanwhile, Houston has performed well as an away underdog, displaying a 4-1 ATS record in such situations.
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[1]: "VSiN: Home Favorite/Underdog ATS records for Divisional Round since 2006"[5]: "VSiN: Home Underdog ATS records in NFL playoffs since 2000"
- In the upcoming NFL Divisional Round, the Detroit Lions are rated as 6.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, making them the home underdog, a position they last held in a playoff game in 1957.
- Interestingly, the Buffalo Bills, considered home favorites, have a spread of only 2.5 points over Kansas City, making them the underdog in terms of the spread, although they are favored as the game favorite in terms of overall odds.
- Looking at the American Football landscape, the Green Bay Packers, despite being road favorites in their game against the San Francisco 49ers, are given more than a touchdown advantage, highlighting their status as the favorite team.
- In the NFC, Tampa Bay and the South Division champions, the Buccaneers, are set as home underdogs, bucking the trend of home favorites in the playoffs this season.
- For sports enthusiasts considering wagers on the spread for these playoff games, it's worth noting that home underdogs have performed well in NFL playoffs since 2000, offering an interesting dynamic to consider alongside traditional favorite and underdog designations.
