NFL Draft 2025 Predictions and Betting Tips by Mike Somich

NFL Draft 2025: Analyzing Top Picks and Smart Bets

The NFL Draft is just around the corner, and the speculation has begun to swirl! Before delving into the latest news and potential bets to add to your account, let's take a broad look at the first round.

This year's draft is shaping up to be amongst the weakest in the last decade. Only one standout player, edge rusher Abdul Carter from Penn State, puts himself in the upper echelon. The quarterback position is also lacking depth, with Cam Ward from Miami being a clear #1, followed by a significant gap to the next signal-caller. Apart from these top-tier positions like tight end, running back, and interior defensive line, the rest of the elite talent pool is scarce. Additionally, the top three offensive linemen are plagued with questions, and this year's top wide receiver wouldn't even crack last year's top 5.

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As of now, every team seems to be holding onto their first-round pick. So far, no trades have been reported, a phenomenon that suggests teams are reluctant to give up future draft capital or late-round picks to aggressively move up. Today's news hints at the Giants and Browns fielding offers for their second and third picks, but such a move would make sense if someone were willing to part with a first-round pick in next year's draft, which is expected to be significantly stronger[1]. The Titans and Patriots have been rumored to be trying to trade out of the first and fifth picks, respectively, while the top 5 picks might all be looking to trade down. However, it's notable that no teams seem eager to trade up, which could lead to a somewhat monotonous draft night.

So, what can this mean for betting? It leaves you with a couple of viable options on how to play it. You can either attack the chalk early with a bet like exact order in the top 5 or avoid those picks altogether and attempt to predict the second domino in the line at a better price. I prefer the latter approach, as I'd rather predict the second pick than try to guess where the surprise occurs[2]. Furthermore, I like some back-to-the-first-round props, as there appears to be more information available with these.

Panthers to select D-Line / Edge with first pick +100This bet is tailored to the Panthers' needs and the nature of the draft. Whether chaos or chalk ensues, they will likely end up with one of three players who are the best fit for their defensive needs. My one concern is their potential selection of Jalon Walker, a pass-rushing linebacker from Georgia, but even then, I wouldn't be surprised if they take Walker's teammate, Mykel Williams. In a chaos scenario, they might go for Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham[3].

10th pick - Tyler Warren +370With Ashton Jeanty's participation in the draft looking increasingly unlikely, Warren is poised to become the clear favorite for the Bears. It's highly improbable for them to seek offensive line or wide receiver help, so if they're going to target an offensive player, it'll likely be a tight end[3]. In both a chaotic and chalky scenario, Warren reaches pick 10, unless someone trades up for him. The Bears selecting a tight end is currently +250, while running back leads the way at +210, but with Jeanty off the board, the odds may shift in favor of tight end.

Cowboys to select a WR with first pick -150I've been advocating for this pick for over two weeks now, and my confidence in it has grown since then. If Arizona wide receiver Tet McMillan is off the board early, the Cowboys have the option to take Texas wideout Matthew Golden at No. 12 in a chaotic situation. If the draft unfolds as expected, McMillan will likely still be available at No. 12[3].

Trey Amos to be selected in the first round +130I'm surprised this price is still favorable for cornerback Trey Amos from Ole Miss. Multiple cornerback-needy teams drafting late in Round 1 could select him, such as the Buffalo Bills, who I predict are his floor pick[3].

Bigger prices I am sprinkling on:

Jets draft a DL/Edge first pick +450 - Are we certain they want to take an offensive lineman at such a high pick and risk their long-term offensive line stability?
Mason Graham pick No. 6 +800 - If chaos ensues and Jeanty is off the board, Graham, the best player remaining, could slide to 6th pick.

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Footnotes:1. The depth of the 2026 NFL Draft could determine whether teams are willing to part with first-round picks this year to upgrade their rosters.2. Rather than predicting where the surprise happens and potentially being "stuck" with a pick that doesn't yield as much value, I prefer to predict the second pick in the line and maximize returns.3. In the case of the Cowboys selecting a wide receiver early on, they would likely choose between Tet McMillan and Matthew Golden. While McMillan has a higher ceiling, Golden is considered more reliable.4. By prioritizing Steelers cornerback Trey Amos in the first round, teams such as the Buffalo Bills could address their cornerback needs, potentially drafting Amos as early as 30th pick.5. Teams with strong positional needs or depth in key areas might engage in trades to move up or down the draft order based on the value they see on their big board against actual pick slots.6. Addressing team needs, accumulating future draft capital, and maximizing value on the first-round picks will guide teams' trade decisions on draft day.

Expert picks suggest that the Panthers might select a defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first pick, given their team's needs and the nature of the 2025 NFL Draft, with Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Mason Graham being possible candidates.
The odds of Tyler Warren, a potential top 10 pick, being selected by the Bears are currently at +370, making it a viable option for those who prefer to predict the second pick rather than guessing the surprise in the first round.
The Cowboys are predicted to select a wide receiver with their first pick, with Arizona's Tet McMillan and Texas' Matthew Golden being the primary candidates if McMillan is unavailable at the Cowboys' pick (No. 12).
The odds for cornerback Trey Amos from Ole Miss to be selected in the first round sit at +130, making him a potential pick for teams with cornerback needs, such as the Buffalo Bills.
In American Football, the NFL Draft 2025 could see teams engaging in trades to address team needs, accumulate future draft capital, and maximize value on their first-round picks, unless the 2026 NFL Draft is significantly weaker, making teams reluctant to trade their first-round picks in 2025.