NFL Betting Predictions Based on Split Analysis
In the world of NFL betting, the offseason presents a unique opportunity for savvy gamblers. One such example is the betting on win totals, a strategy that offers several advantages, including early value discovery, institutional knowledge, and in-season hedging opportunities.
Early Value Discovery
The offseason is a prime time to look for win total bets with value. Sportsbooks set early lines based on projections that can shift as news unfolds or public betting patterns emerge. Sharp bettors can capitalize on inefficiencies before lines move.
Institutional Knowledge
Researching teams thoroughly during the offseason—such as studying roster changes, coaching updates, depth charts, and team dynamics—can help bettors identify favorable win total opportunities. Even if you bet on only a few teams, the process improves your overall NFL understanding for future bets.
Patience and Bankroll Management
Unlike weekly game bets, win total bets placed in the offseason require patience since they won’t resolve until the end of the regular season (6+ months later). This requires bankroll allocation and tolerance for a longer wait before cashing bets.
In-Season Hedging Opportunities
After placing win total bets in the offseason, bettors can adjust or hedge their positions during the NFL season if team performance alters the probability of outcomes, potentially locking in profits or reducing losses.
Contrast with Other Betting Types
Win totals differ from game-day bets like money lines and spreads, which depend on immediate game outcomes. Totals focus on the cumulative results over a season, offering a different angle and sometimes less rushed decisions.
Incorporate Underdogs Strategically
While general game betting strategies advise including underdogs for value, applying a similar mindset to win totals means looking beyond favorites and identifying teams undervalued by the market based on offseason factors.
Use Projection Comparisons
Comparing sportsbook lines to reliable statistical projections or expert analysis can highlight edges in win total bets. Sometimes lines are overly optimistic or pessimistic, especially for teams undergoing significant roster turnover or coaching changes.
The New England Patriots, undergoing a coaching and roster overhaul this offseason, present an interesting case study for win total betting. The Patriots, who had a win total of 7.5 at the start of the offseason, now have a win total of 8.5 at BetMGM due to a high volume of bets on the over.
This shift in the win total can be attributed to several factors. The Patriots have a new head coach in Mike Vrabel, replacing Jerod Mayo, and have made several notable acquisitions in free agency, including WR Stefon Diggs, DL Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis, and LB Harold Landry.
The team also drafted OL Will Campbell and RB Treveyon Henderson in the first two rounds. The addition of these players, combined with the coaching changes, could potentially boost the Patriots' performance and push them closer to the 8.5 win total.
However, the road to success won't be easy. The Rams, who won the NFC West last season and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs, remain a formidable opponent. The Rams have a plethora of starters returning on both sides of the ball, and they have added WR Davante Adams in free agency.
The Rams' win total for the upcoming season remains at 9.5, with a high percentage of bets (85%) and dollars (98%) on the over. Despite the increased juice from -140 to -150, the Rams' over still seems attractive given their returning starters and the addition of Adams.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints, who finished the 2022 season with a record of 5-12, have undergone changes as well. The Saints have seen their starting QB Derek Carr retire, and rookie second round pick Tyler Shough is expected to battle second year player Spencer Rattler for the starting quarterback job.
The Saints have also fired head coach Dennis Allen and hired Eagles OC Kellen Moore as their new head coach. The Saints' opponents from last season had a combined .491 win percentage, ranking 17th overall.
In summary, successful offseason betting on NFL win totals revolves around deep team research, patience, disciplined bankroll management, and identifying mispriced lines before the market adjusts. This approach allows bettors to build knowledge and position themselves advantageously for the entire season.
- The offseason, with early lines that can shift as news unfolds, presents an opportunity for sports bettors to discover value in win total bets for NFL teams, even those undergoing coaching and roster overhauls like the New England Patriots.
- By researching teams thoroughly during the offseason, seeking out roster changes, coaching updates, and team dynamics, a gambler could identify favorable win total opportunities, potentially leading to profitable bets on the season's collective results, such as the Rams' overwin total at 9.5, despite high juice.
- In contrast, underdog teams with strategic acquisitions and coaching changes, like the New Orleans Saints with the incoming rookie QB Tyler Shough and new head coach Kellen Moore, might be undervalued by the market, offering potential win total bet opportunities that could yield profit if the team outperforms expectations.
