Next Year's NBA Draft: Identifying the Top Assist Kings in the Upcoming Class
In the world of basketball, conventional passing stats don't always paint the whole picture. Ben Pfeifer, a notable sports analyst, took it upon himself to develop hand-tracked, subjective measures of passing quality to accurately gauge a player's passing skills. Inspired by Pro Football Focus's "Big Time Throw" metric, Pfeifer tracked high-level passes that showcase vision, accuracy, processing, and creativity.
By visualizing the best "Big Time Passers" with the highest volume passers, Pfeifer aimed to better approximate the top passers in the 2025 NBA Draft. In a recent tweet, he showcased a chart to highlight the prospects generating the most potential assists and recording high average pass quality.
When we scour the chart, players towards the top right corner create more potential assists and record a higher average pass quality. Notably, Egor Demin, Kasparas Jakucionis, and Jeremiah Fears are the class's highest volume passers, with Demin leading the pack at 14.9 potential assists per 40 minutes. However, their high passing load deflates their overall passing quality metrics, keeping them outside the top-10 big-time passers.
Despite their reputation as passers, their high usage and offensive loads lead to tons of basic passes. Even the best passers in the world rack up simple assists without showcasing any special passing traits. Nevertheless, Demin, Jakucionis, and Fears all threw more big-time passes than many players ranked above them, though their overall passing frequencies were much higher.
Kon Knueppel, on the other hand, is the class's highest quality passer, earning a big-time passing metric of 31.4%. Known for his phenomenal processing on the move, Knueppel showcases incredible timing on lob passes and laydowns, making him an exceptional processor of the floor. Although his overall passing volume isn't remarkable, Knueppel makes the most of the passing chances he creates.
A common perception of Knueppel is a low-floor player because of his athletic limitations. However, his passing quality drastically boosts his potential ceiling. Players with his combination of passing and shooting can surpass their supposed ceiling in the NBA.
Derik Queen is another prospect that underscores the need for better passing metrics. Traditional metrics like assist-to-turnover ratio (0.8) and assist rate (11.6%) don't reflect his high passing ability. In fact, Queen ranks second in Pfeifer's big-time passing metrics (31%), only trailing Knueppel by less than half a percent.
Although Queen has a strong tendency to score, his passing quality is extremely high. As a standout playmaker, he demonstrates impressive processing speed, court mapping, and passing creativity. An optimistic forecast for Queen's projection focuses on his high-end passing flashes, banking on him to improve his discipline, reduce turnovers, and squeeze more passing value out of a team with better complementary players.
- Ben Pfeifer's hand-tracked, subjective measures of passing quality in basketball, inspired by the "Big Time Throw" metric, aim to accurately gauge a player's passing skills and better approximate top passers in drafts like the 2025 NBA Draft.
- Despite Egor Demin, Kasparas Jakucionis, and Jeremiah Fears' reputation as high-volume passers, their high passing load results in lower overall passing quality metrics, keeping them outside the top-10 big-time passers.
- Derik Queen's traditional passing metrics don't reflect his high passing ability, as he ranks second in Pfeifer's big-time passing metrics, only trailing Kon Knueppel by less than half a percent.
- Optimistic forecasts for Derik Queen's projection in the NBA focus on his high-end passing flashes, banking on him to improve his discipline, reduce turnovers, and squeeze more passing value out of a team with better complementary players.
