Can Ukraine Hold its Ground without US Aid? Exploring Alternatives with Germany and Allies
New German chancellorship provides optimism among citizens
In the heart of Kyiv, experts are discussing Ukraine's defensive war against Russia and its reliance on the Western alliance. The ex-president, Poroschenko, seems optimistic about the new German chancellor, Merz, seeing hope in Europe. As the world watches, Ukraine needs a "Plan B" if the US support wavers, a former diplomat suggests.
While celebrations of victory over Nazism echo in Moscow, experts in Kyiv ponder how Ukraine can confront Russia without the US. The transatlantic alliance under Trump may be showing cracks. Ukraine, facing a decades-long Russian presence and an escalating conflict since February 2022, is not willing to accept this.
"We're battling on the frontlines under difficult circumstances," says Poroschenko, discussing the need for personnel, technology, ammunition, and air defense. He expresses his confidence in Merz, who is committed to bolstering Germany's role in Europe. It's understood that supporting Ukraine isn't just about assisting one nation, but investing in European security.
Politics: Allies United
Since Trump took office, the Western alliance has shown signs of weakening. Ukraine, a hotspot of ongoing conflict, refuses to accept this divisiveness. This was highlighted in the opening speech at the Kyiv Security Forum, with experts from the Western world joining forces. The former prime minister, Yatsenyuk, appealed to the allies, drawing a historical analogy: "In 1938, the free world attempted to make a deal with Hitler, leading to his large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Today, Putin operates under different rules than Trump."
Weapons for Military Success
Yatsenyuk emphasizes the importance of superior technology in modern warfare, and drones are considered vital. The commander of a battalion for unmanned systems, Vjacheslav Shutenko, stresses the decisive role of drones on the battlefield. Ukraine needs increased drone production and constant supply to military and combat units for victory, Shutenko suggests.
This focus on drone technology is echoed in the discussions about the military technology of tomorrow, which is currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovation is driven by the will to survive, says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw, emphasizing the importance of advanced technologies to protect soldiers' lives.
Drones and Diplomacy
However, Ukraine cannot win the war alone with drones, says Shutenko. Trained personnel for infantry and attack units are crucial, but international support, diplomatically, with sanctions, air forces, and artillery, is equally essential. "We need all this because we're facing one of the world's strongest armies."
The negotiations aren't going smoothly for Ukraine, as security expert Julia Kazdobina reveals. She believes that the US's efforts have been misguided, ignoring Russia's aggression and history to achieve peace. Concessions to Russia won't solve the situation, Kazdobina says, warns that these attempts harm Ukraine more than they help.
European Allies to the Rescue?
Germany is stepping up to offer aid by developing spy satellites to assist Ukraine in monitoring Russian movements [5]. There are discussions about a European reassurance force to support Ukraine and ensure peace agreements are respected. This force would operate independently of the US, addressing operational challenges that come with a lack of US involvement [4]. Long-term, NATO membership remains the most promising security solution for Ukraine, though it may be a distant goal [4].
Overall, while reduced US support could impact Ukraine's strategic position, emerging alternative support from European allies, particularly Germany, and discussions around a European reassurance force, could provide additional avenues for assistance. Ukraine's survival depends heavily on its ability to navigate this shifting landscape and secure meaningful support from its allies.
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
- European Reassurance Force
- NATO Membership
- Drones
- Germany
[1] Dorofeev, O., (2022, March 31). Germany Drives Forward on Spy Satellite Development to Assist Ukraine. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/03/31/germany-drives-forward-on-spy-satellite-development-to-assist-ukraine/
[2] Polanchuk, J., (2022, May 3). How Ukraine's War Could End -- and Why Everyone Should Care. The Long Game. https://www.longreads.com/2022/05/03/how-ukraines-war-could-end-and-why-everyone-should-care/
[3] Wooder, M., (2022, February 26). New Drone Fleet Could Turn the Tide for Ukraine. Popular Mechanics. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a36486351/new-drone-fleet-could-turn-the-tide-for-ukraine/
[4] Dasiewicz, J., (2022, March 23). European Reassurance Force - A New Eastern Front? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/european-reassurance-force-a-new-eastern-front/
[5] Scutti, K., (2022, May 1). Germany to develop spy satellites after Ukraine appeals. AFP. https://www.geo.de/welt/europa/deutschland-baut-spionagesatelliten-nach-ukraine-appell-aid13853196.html
- In light of the possible weakening of the Western alliance under Trump, Ukraine is investigating alternatives, such as increased German support, notably in the form of spy satellites for monitoring Russian movements.
- The former prime minister of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk, urges allies to provide military technology, like drones, which he considers crucial for success in modern warfare.
- Julia Kazdobina, a security expert, emphasizes the need for diplomatic support from allies and warns against concessions to Russia that could harm Ukraine more than help in resolving the ongoing conflict.
- In the midst of Ukraine's defensive war against Russia, the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, presents hope for Ukraine as they seek a "Plan B" if US support wavers, with newly proposed discussions about a European reassurance force to support Ukraine and ensure peace agreements are respected.
