Ukraine's Struggle for Survival: Exploring Alternatives Amidst Western Alliances and Drones
"New German Chancellor offers cause for optimism"
The Ukrainian financial and military institutions are grappling with the challenge of surviving against the aggression from Russia, as Western alliances under the Trump administration show signs of cracks. With the potential loss of US support, Ukraine needs a contingency plan, says a former diplomat.
In Moscow, celebrations are underway to commemorate the victory against Nazism. However, in Kyiv, experts are discussing how to survive against the aggressor Russia with or without the backing of the USA. The future of transatlantic support under the Trump administration remains unclear. Is there hope for peace? And if not, which weapons could sway the war?
"We're smack dab in the middle of a tough battle," stated Ukraine's former President Petro Poroshenko at the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum. There's a shortage of troops, technology, ammunition, and weapons, especially air defense. "Our spirits are pinned on the new German Chancellor," said Poroshenko. "I've had the pleasure of speaking with him just a few days ago, and I was duly impressed by his dedication to fortifying Germany's leadership role throughout Europe and proving it." It's generally understood that supporting Ukraine isn't merely about aiding one nation, but about safeguarding European security.
Politics Trump pressure on Kyiv, claims ceasefire demand and threats of sanctions Since Trump entered office, the Western alliance has displayed apparent fractures. Ukraine, where Russian troops have been present on its territory for over a decade and a large-scale war has been ongoing since February 2022, does not plan to accept this. This theme was the centerpiece of the forum's opening speech, where experts from across the Western world gathered, including from Germany. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk pleaded to the allies: "We managed it 80 years ago, and we'll restore the world order once more."
Weapons for Military Success
Yatsenyuk made historical comparisons. When "the free world at the time" contemplated striking a deal with Hitler in 1938, it was catastrophic. "Hitler launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin plays by a different set of rules than Trump. He warned China and the Global South: "Those who claim neutrality or present themselves as mediators must realize that you cannot remain neutral in this war, or else you become an accomplice."
Later, Trump's former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker sat on stage and was asked about the White House's peace efforts. "Putin will never accept peace," Volker declared frankly. "We require military deterrence." Trump's administration imposes enormous pressure on Ukraine but puts little pressure on Russia, Volker explained. The pressure on Moscow must increase considerably to force Russia toward a ceasefire. Trump's judgment of Putin's motivations is flawed because he is consumed by making a good deal.
Politics "The ball is in Moscow" Merz sees ceasefire within days as possible The pressing question is which weapons could alter the war's outcome - without US support that is about to dry up. Drones are critical in this respect, claims Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of an unmanned systems battalion. "Unmanned systems are no longer mere auxiliary systems. They're decisive on the battlefield." According to Shutenko, Ukraine requires more drones for victory: "We require scalable drone production and a continuous supply of drones to the Ukrainian military and combat units."
His sentiments align with another roundtable discussing innovations on the battlefield - or rather, agreeing on them: Technological advancements of the future are currently being developed in Ukraine. Innovative leaps are driven by the "determination to survive," says tech entrepreneur Dmytro Shymkiw. This happens within months, even weeks. Collaborations between engineers and troops on the front line occur during deployment. Shymkow emphasizes that only the most sophisticated technologies can protect soldiers' lives. This also benefits the armaments industries of allies like Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
Drones as a Crucial Asset
However, Commander Shutenko believes that Ukraine cannot win the war solely with drones: Well-trained personnel for infantry and strike units are vital, but even more critical is continuous international support. Diplomatically, with sanctions, with air forces and artillery. "We require all of this because we are battling here in Ukraine against one of the most powerful armies in the world. If we can prevail, we will inflict such losses on the Russians that they'll beg us for negotiations and peace."
So far, negotiations have been unproductive for Ukraine. In an interview on the forum's sidelines, Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, explained that the US government's efforts thus far have been largely misguided. "They're attempting to create peace without considering the history and causes of the war. They treat both sides of the war equally and neglect the fact that Russia is the aggressor and the aggression is deliberate, premeditated, and calculated." Attempts to make concessions to Russia will not solve the situation. "This hurts Ukraine more than it helps."
Politics "Hold Putin accountable" Ukraine allies call for war crimes tribunal According to Kazdobina, other European countries are already at war. "We understand according to the Russian military doctrine, hybrid methods for undermining a potential victim come first." Then comes the confrontation on the battlefield. "Even if there appears to be peace still and they're only exposed to hybrid attacks, they're already in a state of war."
The ideal scenario would be for US aid not to expire. Experts view the resource agreement with the United States ratified by the Ukrainian parliament on Thursday morning as a positive sign. It reflects that it's profitable to say no. Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, believes that it's worth continuing to involve the US. However, he suggests, "It's essential that Kyiv has a Plan B."
- Military Strategy Ukraine
- Moscow Victory Parade
- Donald Trump
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Vladimir Putin
- Hybrid Warfare
- Drones
- European Security
- The former President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, expressed concerns about the lack of support from the USA, as the Trump administration shows signs of fractures in their Western alliances, and urged for the support of Germany to restore European security.
- During the Kyiv Security Forum, Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk pleaded to the allies for continued support, comparing the current situation to World War II, and emphasizing the need for military deterrence against Russia.
- Ukrainian military expert Vyacheslav Shutenko believes that drones are decisive on the battlefield and are a crucial asset for Ukraine, but also emphasizes the need for well-trained personnel, continuous international support, and diplomatic pressure on Russia for a ceasefire.
- Julia Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, called for a war crimes tribunal to hold Vladimir Putin accountable for aggression against Ukraine, as other European countries are already at war due to Russia's hybrid methods of undermining potential victims.
