Netanyahu's Shift Inspires Trump, Contrary to U.S. Intelligence Agencies' Stance
Revised Article:
Title: A Dance With Fire: Closing In On An Atomic Bomb – The Tension Between Iran And The US
By Hubertus Volmer
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The drums of war are rumbling once more, but not in the same fashion as the infamous Iraq War in 2003. The potential U.S. entry into another Middle Eastern conflict seems to be a complex dance between American intelligence and the Israeli government.
The ghost of the Iraq War still haunts us. The false premise of weapons of mass destruction that Colin Powell presented to the UN Security Council has become one of history's biggest blunders. On March 20, 2003, the USA plunged into a bloody war that left Iraq in shambles, created the terrorist organization Islamic State, and became a moral disaster for the USA. Needless to say, the stocks of weapons of mass destruction were never found.
On the Edge of Catastrophe: Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
Fast forward to today, and U.S. President Donald Trump is demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” from Iran. The focus has shifted from chemical and biological weapons to a nuclear threat. Is Trump setting the stage for Iran War 2.0, or is he merely creating a spectacle to divert attention from internal issues, as some critics suggest?
In an interview with Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran could produce an atomic weapon "in a very short time." Moreover, Netanyahu stated that the evidence provided to the United States was crystal-clear, revealing Iran's secret plan to convert uranium into weapons.
However, the U.S. intelligence community holds a starkly different view. They believe that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 following the invasion of neighboring Iraq. According to Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. intelligence director, Iran is not actively building nuclear weapons, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not approved such a program since its suspension in 2003.
Interestingly, Netanyahu's revelations haven't swayed the U.S. intelligence community's stance. They believe that Iran is, in fact, conducting research into nuclear weapons, but they are still not conclusive that Iran has made a decision to advance construction of a bomb, as reported by the "Wall Street Journal" citing several sources.
A Ticking Clock: Threat or Bluff?
The scrutiny of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has shown that Iran has violated its nuclear non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost twenty years. On June 12, the IAEA Board of Governors declared that Iran was not fully cooperating with the agency, and it was impossible to guarantee that Iran's nuclear program was for peaceful purposes.
In response, Iran announced its intentions to build a new uranium enrichment facility and increase its production of enriched uranium. Just two weeks earlier, when the uranium stockpile was still 182 kilograms, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi emphasized that Iran was the only country without nuclear weapons enriching uranium to such high levels, which he found "serious cause for concern."
The IAEA report raises concerns given that the step from 60 percent enriched uranium to the 90 percent required for nuclear weapons is relatively close. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb. The weaponizable uranium still needs to be converted into metal form, integrated into a weapon, and mounted on a rocket before it can be used for nefarious purposes.
A Trojan Horse: Is Peace On The Horizon?
Grossi estimates that Iran would still need a few years to develop a deployable rocket with a nuclear warhead. This lines up with an assessment by U.S. intelligence that Iran is up to three years away from being able to build and deploy a nuclear bomb, as reported by CNN.
The contradictions within Trump's statements are unprecedented. On June 12, he spoke out against Israeli attacks on Iran. On the same day, he claimed that talks with the regime in Tehran were going “very well.” Four days later, three days after Israeli attacks on targets in Iran, Trump still maintained that there should be a negotiated solution. Then, on July 17, he demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.
One day, Trump speaks of negotiations, and the next, he calls for an attack. The IC remains skeptical of the situation, as they don't have a clear understanding of what is driving Trump's decisions.
Israel is relying on military support from the U.S., but the bunker-busting weapons necessary to destroy underground enrichment facilities, like the Fordow site, are only available to the U.S. military. Israel could temporarily disable these facilities, but if they really want to obliterate them, they would need U.S. support or a nuclear strike, according to former US diplomat in the Middle East, Brett McGurk, on CNN.
Trump, for his part, appears mercurial, seemingly unbothered by the assessments of his intelligence chief. It's unclear whether Trump intends to pave the way for an Israeli-Iranian war with his statements, or whether he intends to broker peace between the two nations.
One thing is certain: Iran poses a very real threat to world peace, and a war between Iran and the U.S. would only add to this instability. The truth, as always, remains to be seen.
Source:
- [1] "Iran Nuclear Proliferation," Council on Foreign Relations, \<https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/iran-nuclear-proliferation>
- [2] "Iran's nuclear program," Arms Control Association, \https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-03/issue/irans-nuclear-program-2019
- [3] "Iran's nuclear capability," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, \https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/06/01/irans-nuclear-capability-loses-nothing-since-deal-pub-76838
The Commission, in the midst of politics and general-news discussions, has also been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the ongoing tension between Iran and the US over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
As international negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program continue to unfold, the potential impact on worker safety in the field of ionizing radiation cannot be overlooked, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions and the advancement of nuclear technology.
