Netanyahu's government coalition partner withdraws support
On July 16, 2025, Israel's ultra-Orthodox Shas Party announced the resignation of its ministers from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, protesting the lack of progress in reinstating a broad exemption for ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service. Despite these resignations, Shas has affirmed it will not immediately leave the governing coalition, avoiding—for now—the collapse of Netanyahu's narrow Knesset majority, which relies heavily on their 11 seats.
The party's ministers are expected to formally step down from their posts after a brief transition period, preventing Netanyahu from losing his legislative majority, a scenario that would likely trigger new elections. Shas controls crucial ministries, including interior, labor, welfare, and religious services, and their continued coalition membership, at least in the short term, is crucial for Netanyahu to maintain his hold on power.
The immediate trigger for the crisis is the government's failure to fulfill ultra-Orthodox demands for a legal arrangement to reinstate broad exemptions from compulsory military service for yeshiva students. Historically, ultra-Orthodox men have been largely exempt from the draft, focusing instead on religious study. This arrangement, contentious for decades, has come under intense scrutiny amid Israel's ongoing military conflicts and a Supreme Court ruling in June 2024 that ended automatic exemptions for eligible Haredi men.
Despite the court's decision, the Netanyahu government has not passed new legislation to formalize the status quo ante, leading Shas to withdraw its ministers as a protest gesture. There is also growing pressure within Netanyahu's Likud party and broader Israeli society to increase Haredi conscription, especially as the military's manpower needs have surged.
The most likely path forward is negotiation of a new law that would provide some form of structured exemption for Haredi men, balancing the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties with the requirements of the Supreme Court and the Israeli public. Netanyahu has reportedly pressured Shas to delay a full coalition exit while negotiations continue.
If negotiations fail and Shas fully withdraws from the coalition, Netanyahu would lose his parliamentary majority, potentially leading to early elections—a scenario all parties are keen to avoid given the current political instability. There are already reports that Shas could vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset if their demands are not met.
The ultimate escalation would be the collapse of the government, dissolution of the Knesset, and snap elections. This remains a plausible scenario should compromise prove impossible, though all sides currently seem to prefer to keep the coalition intact for now.
For now, pressure from all sides is focused on finding a legislative solution that satisfies both the ultra-Orthodox community and the broader Israeli public. The fate of the Israeli coalition hangs in the balance, as both sides navigate this complex and sensitive issue.
The Shas Party's ministers are expected to engage in negotiations over the implementation of a new policy-and-legislation regarding exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, aiming to prevent new elections due to a lack of legislative majority. General-news outlets have reported that the fate of Israel's coalition depends on the outcome of these negotiations, as the crisis stems from the court's decision to end automatic exemptions and the government's failure to pass new legislation.
