Netanyahu takes a risk in his final bid to prevent the demise of his governance
In a move that carries significant political and legal implications, Israel has announced plans to gradually take control of parts of the Gaza Strip. The proposed military operation, which involves a takeover of Gaza City and potentially the entire Gaza Strip, has sparked concerns about exacerbating humanitarian crises, triggering further violence, and breaching international law.
Politically, the plan could reshape the political landscape in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The intention is to "hand control" to unnamed Arab forces not affiliated with Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, a move that could undermine Palestinian governance structures and diminish prospects for a negotiated two-state solution. The displacement of hundreds of thousands to up to one million civilians could further destabilize the Gaza Strip, exacerbate refugee flows, and cause regional political fallout.
The United Nations Security Council has warned that this escalation risks "igniting another horrific chapter" in the conflict, with a significant humanitarian toll. The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) has condemned Israel’s plan, warning it will likely lead to the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including forcible transfer (forcible displacement) of civilians and destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Legally, the ground offensive and eventual occupation would be strongly contested under international law, particularly regarding the protection of civilians and prohibition of population transfers during conflict. The planned "takeover" and possible annexation raise questions about violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, potentially constituting further unlawful annexation akin to previous controversial steps in the West Bank.
The threat to take over Gaza has been criticized as an empty threat that would cause a backlash around the world without putting any pressure on Hamas. Some argue that the danger of annexation indicates a shift in Israel's war goals from defeating Hamas to taking control of more land.
Under Israeli law, land that has been seized cannot be given back without the approval of 80 Knesset members or a national vote, which have never happened before. Support for recognizing Palestine as a state is growing, with nine countries expected to say they recognize the Palestinian Authority before the UN General Assembly in September.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to take over parts of the Gaza Strip if Hamas does not agree to end the fighting within a specified timeframe. However, some within Israel have expressed doubts about the feasibility of the plan. The move has been described as a "political gamble" by political expert Wissam Afifa.
The White House is said to have shown approval of the plan, while French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have both said they will recognize the Palestinian Authority if Israel does not change its mind. The strategic implications of this decision are far-reaching, with potential consequences for regional stability and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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