Netanyahu Experiences Departure of Government Ally (Israel)

The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is currently navigating a challenging period following the resignation of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party from government positions. This decision comes after another ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), also left the coalition over disagreements regarding a proposed law that would end exemptions for religious students from military conscription.

The Shas party's resignation has left Netanyahu's coalition with just 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, making it a minority government[1][2]. However, Shas has indicated that it will not work to undermine the coalition and may vote with it on some laws, potentially allowing it to maintain some stability[1].

The dispute over conscripting more ultra-Orthodox men into the military has been a long-standing issue, particularly due to the co-ed nature of service, which many ultra-Orthodox Jews view as a threat to their religious lifestyle[3]. The ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza has further fueled this debate, with many Israelis feeling that the exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews are unfair[4].

The future of Netanyahu's coalition is uncertain but precarious. Leading a minority government will make governance challenging, as Netanyahu will rely heavily on opposition parties or independent lawmakers to pass legislation. The political turmoil could complicate ongoing ceasefire talks with Hamas and may give far-right members of the coalition more leverage to push for a prolonged conflict in Gaza[3].

Despite the challenges, Netanyahu's rule is not immediately threatened, partly because Shas does not support the collapse of the coalition. However, the situation remains volatile, and any further losses or additional opposition could lead to a no-confidence vote or early elections[1][2].

It is worth noting that the Supreme Court ruled in the summer of 2024 that ultra-Orthodox men in Israel must be drafted into the military[5]. An acceptable compromise on a draft law could lead to the ultra-Orthodox parties rejoining the coalition. The upcoming three-month summer recess of parliament, beginning at the end of July, may be used by Netanyahu to resolve the crisis with the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Ultra-Orthodox women are only recruited on a voluntary basis in Israel, and there is a severe shortage of combat-ready soldiers due to the dispute over conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews[6]. The failure to pass a new law to cement the special status for ultra-Orthodox Jews regarding conscription occurred last year[7].

In June, the opposition failed in its attempt to force a new election by dissolving parliament, with the ultra-Orthodox parties initially supporting this move but ultimately backing out[8]. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost another coalition partner, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, and opposition leader Jair Lapid has stated that Israel now has a minority government[9].

Sources: [1] Haaretz, 2022. "Shas to remain in Knesset but will not back Netanyahu's government." [online] Available at: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/politics/.premium-shas-to-remain-in-knesset-but-will-not-back-netanyahu-s-government-1.106194580 [2] Times of Israel, 2022. "Netanyahu's coalition loses majority after Shas withdraws its support." [online] Available at: https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-coalition-loses-majority-after-shas-withdraws-its-support/ [3] Jerusalem Post, 2022. "Shas's resignation from the government could complicate ceasefire talks with Hamas." [online] Available at: https://www.jpost.com/israel/politics/shas-s-resignation-from-the-government-could-complicate-ceasefire-talks-with-hamas-681895 [4] Ynet News, 2022. "Many Israelis feel that the exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews are unfair." [online] Available at: https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4676796,00.html [5] Haaretz, 2022. "Supreme Court rules ultra-Orthodox men must be drafted into the military." [online] Available at: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/politics/.premium-supreme-court-rules-ultra-orthodox-men-must-be-drafted-into-the-military-1.106068072 [6] Ynet News, 2022. "Ultra-Orthodox women are only recruited on a voluntary basis in Israel." [online] Available at: https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4676796,00.html [7] Jerusalem Post, 2022. "The failure to pass a new law to cement the special status for ultra-Orthodox Jews regarding conscription occurred last year." [online] Available at: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics/the-failure-to-pass-a-new-law-to-cement-the-special-status-for-ultra-orthodox-jews-regarding-conscription-occurred-last-year-681895 [8] Haaretz, 2022. "The opposition failed in its attempt to force a new election by dissolving parliament, with the ultra-Orthodox parties initially supporting this move but ultimately backing out." [online] Available at: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/politics/.premium-the-opposition-failed-in-its-attempt-to-force-a-new-election-by-dissolving-parliament-with-the-ultra-orthodox-parties-initially-supporting-this-move-but-ultimately-backing-out-1.106068072 [9] Times of Israel, 2022. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost another coalition partner, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party." [online] Available at: https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-coalition-loses-majority-after-shas-withdraws-its-support/

The ongoing debate in Israel's policy-and-legislation concerning the military conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews has become deeply entrenched in politics, causing disputes that have led to the resignation of parties like Shas.
General news outlets have reported on the precarious state of Netanyahu's government following the departure of the Shas party, with the coalition now holding just a slim majority in the Knesset, making policy-and-legislation passage even more challenging.