"Neil Melvin of RUSI weighs in on Trump's Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement and the shifting geopolitics in the South Caucasus, stating that it's merely a stepping stone, not the conclusion of events"
The TRIPP agreement, or Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, signed in August 2025, marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. Brokered by the United States, this agreement establishes a U.S.-controlled transit corridor through Armenia's southern Syunik province, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and providing a direct land route to Turkey [1][2][5].
The corridor, spanning approximately 43 kilometres, grants the U.S. exclusive rights to develop transport infrastructure, including rail, oil, gas, fiber-optic lines, and electricity transmission [5]. Managed by a U.S.-subleased consortium, the corridor aims to increase regional connectivity and economic ties [1][3][5].
This agreement has far-reaching implications:
- U.S. Strategic Foothold: The corridor serves as a major strategic victory for the U.S., establishing it as the primary power broker in the South Caucasus, a region traditionally influenced by Russia and Iran. It allows Washington to directly influence trade and transit routes while diminishing Moscow and Tehran’s control [1][2][5].
- Shift in Regional Power Dynamics: The corridor facilitates closer Azerbaijan-Turkey ties and integrates the South Caucasus more firmly into Western economic and strategic orbit, effectively bypassing Iranian and Russian transit routes [1][2][3][5].
- Impacts on Armenia: While Armenia stands to gain potential economic benefits through increased trade and investments, critics argue it risks losing sovereignty over a vital transport artery and faces internal challenges such as constitutional amendments and geopolitical realignment away from Russia [1][3]. Armenia has accepted conditions such as removing references to Artsakh from its constitution and dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group, which had mediated the conflict previously [3].
- Containment of Iran: The corridor puts pressure on Iran by controlling its only land border with Armenia under a U.S.-led route aligned with Azerbaijani and Turkish interests, restricting Tehran’s influence and access in the region [1][4].
- Conflict Resolution Context: The agreement follows decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, attempts at peace through the OSCE Minsk Group, and recent Azerbaijani military gains altering the geopolitical landscape. The TRIPP deal represents a new diplomatic approach focused on pragmatic geo-economic interests rather than earlier conflict-centred negotiations [2][4][5].
The agreement has received mixed reactions. There has been negative reaction, notably from Iran, who have expressed outright hostility [4]. Russia, on the other hand, is in a complicated position and has decided not to formally oppose the agreement [4]. The agreement strengthens a broader trend toward a multi-vector region, with the US, Europe, China, and the Gulf states engaging in the region [4].
The agreement is a significant step forward in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but complex issues remain to be resolved [5]. The renewed U.S. stake in the South Caucasus focuses on economic and trade interests rather than the European order [4]. As the agreement is implemented within Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the region, its full implications will become clear [5].
- The TRIPP agreement, with its focus on transport infrastructure development and economic integration, can be viewed as a manifestation of political negotiations in the context of war-and-conflicts, specifically the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
- The corridor established by the TRIPP agreement, which aims to increase regional connectivity, is not only a matter of general-news regarding geopolitical landscape shifts, but also a strategic move that impacts geopolitical relations, such as US-Russia and US-Iran dynamics, and regional power balances.
