Germany's Coalition Talks Approaching the Homestretch
- Negotiation Participation of the Commission in the Discussions for the New...
After nearly a month of intense negotiations, the Union and SPD seem to be on the cusp of wrapping up the coalition talks. Despite ending their discussions late Monday with no final agreement, insiders reveal that the aim is to reach a resolution by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Negotiations will reconvene at 9:30 AM onward at the CDU party headquarters, and CDU leader Friedrich Merz is reportedly meeting with his closest circle of senior party members to fill them in on the progress of the talks.
Throughout the day on Tuesday, the Union and SPD faced challenges in finding common ground and compromises. Not only did the ever-changing formats of discussions get interrupted by individual consultations within the parties, but the international situation and the trade policies of US President Donald Trump added additional weight on the negotiators’ shoulders. As per experts, new recession risks and problems for the export-oriented German economy could arise due to US tariffs. Merz aims to counter this through lower corporate taxes, less bureaucracy, and cheaper energy prices.
Tracing the Beginning
The Union, as the victorious party following the federal election, commenced exploratory talks with the SPD on coalition formation just five days after the election. With no viable alternatives for a ‘black-green’ coalition due to insufficient numbers in parliament, and working with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) out of the question for the Union, the black-red coalition seemed the most probable outcome.
On March 4th, the CDU, CSU, and SPD joined forces to approve a historical financial package for defense and infrastructure, worth an impressive 500 billion euros. This significant step was enabled by a series of amendments made to the Basic Law, requiring a two-thirds majority, which loosened the debt brake restriction imposed on defense spending and established a special fund for infrastructure and climate protection.
Make Your Wish in the Working Groups
The exploratory talks concluded on March 8th after 11 days, with an 11-page document and a recommendation to commence coalition negotiations. These formal negotiations kicked off on March 13th, and 16 working groups were established to hash out the finer details of various topics within a fortnight. These working group documents contained several agreements, but also divergent perspectives in numerous areas meant to be resolved by the 19-member senior negotiating round. Merz criticized the working group labels, feeling they might as well be labelled "Make a Wish."
While the working group papers were made available to the public, the senior-most negotiations offered little insight. Occasionally, the politicians from the 19-member round granted interviews, but they rarely revealed any concrete details. Negotiations occurred alternatively in the SPD and CDU headquarters, as well as the Bavarian representation in Berlin, with issues like the tax system and migration policy posing significant sticking points.
Rising Dissatisfaction within the CDU
In the course of the coalition talks, the CDU has experienced a surge of discontent. Reactions to the shift in strategy by party leader Merz on the debt brake caused around a third of the CDU city association in Kühlungsborn (district of Rostock) to step down from the party. The Young Union members have threatened to vote against a coalition contract that does not firmly anchor the planned policy changes championed by Merz during the campaign. Additionally, unrest within the Brandenburg CDU has arisen due to perceptions of the party base being overlooked in the discussions, with the Potsdam-Mittelmark district association advocating for a member referendum, analogous to the SPD’s approach.
These unrest are compounded by poor poll numbers for the Union. Since garnering 28.5 percent in the Bundestag election, both the CDU and CSU have sustained losses in various public opinion polls, with the AfD creeping up and even tying with the Union in some surveys.
What Comes Next?
If the Union manages to reach a coalition agreement, the SPD has plans to schedule a digital member vote within the next ten days. On the CDU side, a small party conference will decide on the contract, while the CSU will suffice with a board resolution. Initially, Merz sought to form a government by Easter, but that timetable now seems impracticable. The potential date for Merz’s election and swearing-in as Chancellor is now set for May 7th.
Glossary
- SPD
- CDU
- Coalition talks
- Friedrich Merz
- Policy shift
- CSU
- Federal Election
- AfD
- Berlin
- Leader
- Donald Trump
- Bundestag
- Economic policies
- Migration policy
- The Parliament has yet to pass a resolution on the Commission communication regarding the European Union's role in the fight against terrorism, as discussions within the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, are focusing on domestic issues such as economic policies, migration, and the coalition agreement with the SPD.
- During the ongoing coalition negotiations, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has been holding meetings with senior party members to discuss potential compromises on various topics, including the contentious issue of migration policy, as the Union and SPD aim to reach a resolution by mid-afternoon on Wednesday.
- As part of the bargaining process, the working groups established during the formal negotiations have been making proposals on different topics, with one group presumably focusing on the European Union's role in counteracting terrorism, as the end of the coalition discussions with the SPD and potential formation of a new government draw near.
