Neglecting Climate Catastrophes by Exclusively Centering on Global Warming Temperatures
In an effort to reduce disaster risks and losses worldwide by 2030, as outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, India is taking significant strides to strengthen its disaster management capabilities.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is set to integrate Disaster-Risk-Reduction modules into engineering and planning curricula, aiming to train 50,000 district-level officials by 2030. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to lower the average number of deaths per 100,000 people caused by disasters, one of the main global targets set by the Sendai Framework.
To enhance early warning systems and disaster risk information, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is piloting a project called NFCS, which is set to be scaled into district-level "Climate Cells". These Climate Cells will be staffed with data scientists and planners, using Doppler radar, IoT rain-gauges, and crowd-sourced hazard reports for ward-level forecasts.
In addition, Heat-indexed cash transfers and portable cooling vouchers are to be embedded within existing PM-Kisan and Ayushman Bharat platforms, providing crucial support to vulnerable communities during heatwaves.
The Sendai Framework also emphasizes the importance of reducing direct disaster economic losses. To address this, Climate Stress-Tests for critical infrastructure are to be mandated every 5 years using updated multi-hazard maps generated with ISRO satellite data. Furthermore, Private-Sector Partnerships are to use Utility-As-A-Service models for maintenance of sensor networks and insurance underwriting data to expand crop and property coverage against climate perils.
The targets also focus on reducing the number of affected people globally, including those injured or otherwise impacted. To this end, Women-led Resilience Committees are to be institutionalized for early warning dissemination, based on lessons from Odisha Cyclone Fani 2019.
The NDMA is also to publish annual "Forecast Verification & Failure Review" reports for continuous improvement, and an inter-operable National Hydro-Met Data Grid is to be created under a new Rules framework.
It's worth noting that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now stresses risk gradients rather than binary "safe limits". Moreover, Climate science traditionally links radiative forcing to the globally averaged surface air temperature (GAST), but Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) underpin long-range forecasts but propagate scenario uncertainty into temperature spreads of ±0.7 °C by 2100.
Despite the challenges posed by climate change, the record-breaking mean global temperatures in 2023 and 2024 were 1.45 °C and 1.55 °C above the 1850-1900 average. However, near-term, high-resolution predictions are increasingly skillful for many hazards, according to the IPCC.
Model Building Bye-laws are proposed to be amended to include Return-Period-based elevation and ventilation standards to further enhance resilience. The Global Commission on Adaptation estimates that deploying district-level, multi-hazard early-warning systems could avert up to nine rupees in disaster losses for every rupee invested.
These initiatives collectively emphasize minimizing loss of life and damage, strengthening governance and preparedness, and promoting inclusive and proactive disaster risk management globally. They underline the framework's guiding principles of understanding disaster risk, strengthening disaster risk governance, investing in resilience, and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response.
Sources: 1. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 2. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) 3. World Bank (2024) 4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5. Global Commission on Adaptation
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