Nearly seven out of ten anticipate the AfD party to assume the role of Prime Minister by 2026
The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is gearing up for the 2026 state elections in several German states, including Saxony-Anhalt. However, recent political and public expectations suggest that the AfD may not secure a Minister-President position in Saxony-Anhalt or any other German state.
Currently, the AfD holds significant but regionally varying influence in eastern German states, such as Saxony-Anhalt, where it has been a strong parliamentary force. However, forming a Minister-President position typically requires either a majority or coalition support from other parties, many of which have ruled out cooperation with the AfD due to ideological differences and the party's controversial positions.
Surveys conducted in 2024 and 2025 have shown the AfD often polling as the third or fourth largest party in some eastern states, but rarely in a position to govern alone or form coalitions needed for executive office. As a result, while the AfD may remain a significant opposition force in states like Saxony-Anhalt, most political analysts consider it unlikely for the AfD to secure a Minister-President seat by 2026 without major shifts in the political landscape or cooperation agreements with other parties.
The upcoming state elections will take place in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The latest polls indicate that the AfD is far from absolute majorities in these states. The CDU/CSU currently hold a 26% share in the nationwide Sunday trend, while the AfD remains close behind with 25%. The SPD remains at 15%, the Greens hold their 11%, the Left is at 9%, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) reaches 4%, and the FDP also remains at 4%.
The public opinion is divided on the AfD's potential to form a government. While more than half of the population expects the AfD to have at least one Minister-President in a state after the state elections next year, 19% of respondents do not expect an AfD Minister-President. A survey by Insa for "Bild am Sonntag" shows that 43% of respondents expect the AfD to have at least one Minister-President in a state.
The AfD's classification as "conclusively right-wing extremist" in Saxony-Anhalt by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution adds to the concerns about the party's potential political influence. The CDU has rejected any coalitions or similar forms of cooperation with the AfD and the Left, according to a 2018 incompatibility resolution.
The political landscape in Germany is dynamic, and the situation may change closer to the 2026 elections. For more precise voter polling data or expert political forecasts, further updates will be provided as we approach the election year.
- Despite the AfD's significant influence in some eastern German states like Saxony-Anhalt, political analysts find it unlikely for the party to secure a Minister-President seat by 2026 due to the need for coalition support and the reluctance of other parties to work with them.
- Public opinion regarding the AfD's potential to form a government is divided; while more than half of the population expects the AfD to have at least one Minister-President in a state after the state elections next year, some 19% of respondents do not expect an AfD Minister-President. The classifications of the party as "conclusively right-wing extremist" in places like Saxony-Anhalt add to these concerns about their political influence.
